Prediction for match Milan — Genoa, 08.01.2026

Match Preview

On January 8th in Serie A, Milan will face Genoa. According to the 1X2 odds, Milan is the favorite with odds of 1.47 for their victory, a draw is priced at 4.66, and Genoa's win is at 8.15. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Milan - 66.85%, draw - 21.09%, Genoa - 12.06%. This setup reflects Milan's advantage in most parameters, although Genoa has repeatedly proven that they can challenge even more prestigious opponents. In the goal totals line, the bet on over 2.5 goals at 2.09 stands out, as well as the option "Both teams to score: no" at 1.60, indicating a potential tilt towards one team's scoring prowess. Options for individual totals and double chance are also available, but the over 2.5 goals bet is the most intriguing given the teams' profiles in recent matches.

Team Results and Statistics

In a five-match series, Milan shows 57.6% possession, averages 1.2 yellow cards, commits 8.2 fouls, and 1.8 offsides per game. Genoa, over the same period, has 41.6% possession, receives 0.8 yellows, commits 11 fouls, and 2.2 offsides. In their last three matches, Milan defeated Cagliari 1-0 (02.01.2026), comfortably handled Verona 3-0 (28.12.2025), and lost to Napoli 0-2 (18.12.2025). Genoa drew with Pisa 1-1 (03.01.2026), lost to Roma 1-3 (29.12.2025), and fell to Atalanta 0-1 (21.12.2025). In their last head-to-head on May 5, 2025, Milan beat Genoa 2-1. In this series, Milan appears more composed and stable, as evidenced by their possession stats and fewer fouls. Genoa fouls more frequently and lags in average possession, which may affect the game's dynamics and the number of dangerous moments at their goal. However, Genoa can put up a fight, as seen in results against strong opponents.

Goals by Match Statistics

In the five-match series, Milan's average total goals per match is 3, while Genoa's is 2.6. Milan scores 1.8 and concedes 1.2, Genoa scores 1 and concedes 1.6. Both teams have recorded 3 out of 5 matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency for high-scoring games. By halves, Milan has 2 out of 5 matches with over 1.5 goals in the first half and 3 out of 5 in the second, while Genoa has 3 out of 5 and 1 out of 5, respectively. Milan most frequently scores between the 31-45 and 46-60 minute marks (33% each), while Genoa scores in the 0-15 and 61-75 minute intervals (33% each). Milan concedes most often in the final minutes (76-90 minutes, 33%), and Genoa in the 31-45 and 76-90 minute intervals (43% each). This profile indicates that both teams are capable of creating and converting chances, especially in the second half. The cumulative goals and over totals support a bet on over 2.5 goals, priced at 2.09. Milan looks more promising in terms of attacking potential, while Genoa can seize their opportunity in specific phases. Overall, it's reasonable to expect at least three goals in this encounter.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Milan averages 5.8 corners per match, Genoa 2.4. For total corners over 9.5, Milan has 3 out of 5, while Genoa has only 1 out of 5. Among the corner totals, the line closest to the average sum (8.2) is 8.5: total corners over 8.5 is at 1.59, under 8.5 at 2.27. In the corners outcome line, Milan is favored with odds of 1.22. Based on the statistics, a bet on total corners over 8.5 seems justified, considering Milan's attacking activity and their ability to create chances through the flanks. Genoa contributes less to the overall sum, but with Milan's dominance in possession and attacking actions, the number of corners could increase due to pressure on the opponent's defense. In this match, it's logical to expect Milan to frequently approach Genoa's goal and earn set pieces.