Prediction for match Milan — Lecce, 18.01.2026

Odds and Probability of Match Outcome

On January 18th in Serie A, Milan will face Lecce. Milan is the clear favorite according to bookmakers, with odds of 1.33 for their win. The odds for a draw are 5.36, and for Lecce's victory, it's 13.00. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Milan - 74.05%, draw - 18.37%, Lecce - 7.58%. This indicates a significant advantage for Milan in this matchup, as confirmed by previous encounters between these teams.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Milan recorded the following results: January 15th - Como vs Milan 1-3, January 11th - Fiorentina vs Milan 1-1, January 8th - Milan vs Genoa 1-1. Lecce's last three outings were: January 14th - Inter vs Lecce 1-0, January 11th - Lecce vs Parma 1-2, January 6th - Lecce vs Roma 0-2. On average over five matches, Milan has 49.4% possession, commits 1.4 offsides, receives 1.4 yellow cards, and makes 9 fouls. Lecce shows 38% possession, 1 offside, 2.4 yellow cards, and 11.4 fouls in the same period. In their last head-to-head on September 23, 2025, Milan defeated Lecce 3-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Milan played over 2.5 goals twice and under three times. Lecce also had two matches over 2.5 and three under. Milan's average goals per match is 2.4, while Lecce's is 2.2. Milan scores an average of 1.8 goals per game and concedes 0.6. Lecce scores 0.4 and concedes 1.8. In the first half, Milan went over 1.5 goals only once in five games, while Lecce never did. In the second half, Milan went over 1.5 goals four times, and Lecce three times. Milan most frequently scores between the 46th and 60th minute (33%), while Lecce spreads its scoring across four intervals: 0-15, 46-60, 61-75, 76-90 - each 25%. Milan most often concedes between the 76th and 90th minute (43%), and Lecce between the 61st and 75th (63%). Given Lecce's low scoring and Milan's solid defense, betting on both teams not to score at 1.49 seems logical. Milan consistently finds the net, but Lecce has struggled to score in recent matches.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Milan averages 7 corners over five matches, while Lecce averages 2.6. In a series of five games, Milan always exceeded the 9.5 corners total, while Lecce did so three times. Among available corner totals, 9.5 is closest to the average sum (9.6): over 9.5 corners is at 1.73, under 9.5 is at 2.03. Milan is the favorite in corners with odds of 1.20. In this match, Milan is expected to dominate in corner counts, with the total likely around 9-10.