Prediction for match Milan — Udinese

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In Serie A on 11.04.2026, Milan faces Udinese. The odds for a Milan victory are 1.50, a draw is at 4.86, and Udinese's win is valued at 6.90. In terms of probabilities: Milan - 65.53%, draw - 20.23%, Udinese - 14.25%. Milan is clearly favored in both odds and probabilities, but recent match statistics for both teams suggest moderate scoring and cautious play, which could influence betting choices. Additional markets for totals and both teams to score also show restrained odds, confirming expectations of a less high-scoring encounter.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Milan lost 0-1 to Napoli, won 3-2 against Torino, and lost 0-1 to Lazio. Udinese drew 0-0 with Como, defeated Genoa 2-0, and lost 0-1 to Juventus in their last three outings. Over a five-match span, Milan averages 51.6% possession, 1.2 yellow cards, 10.4 fouls, and 2.4 offsides per game. During the same period, Udinese averages 39.6% possession, 2.6 yellow cards, 12.2 fouls, and 0.8 offsides. In their last head-to-head on 20.09.2025, Udinese lost 0-3 to Milan. These figures indicate Milan plays more disciplined and controls the ball more often, while Udinese tends to commit more fouls and receive more cards.

Team Scoring Streaks

The average number of goals in matches involving both teams over the last five games is exactly 2, with Milan scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.8, and Udinese scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.6. Milan has only one instance out of five where the total exceeded 2.5 goals, while Udinese has two out of five. In the first half, Milan exceeded 1.5 goals only once, and Udinese had no such instances. In the second half, Milan exceeded 1.5 goals in 2 out of 5 matches, and Udinese in 3 out of 5. Milan most frequently scores between the 31st-45th minutes (33%) and 46th-60th minutes (33%), while Udinese scores most often in the 61st-75th and 76th-90th minutes (40% each). Milan concedes most frequently at the end of the match (76th-90th minutes - 75%), while Udinese concedes between the 31st-45th minutes (40%). These data confirm that neither team tends to over-perform in terms of goals, with average goals scored and conceded not exceeding two per game. Given the low frequency of totals exceeding 2.5 and moderate average goals, a bet on under 3.0 total goals at 1.56 seems reasonable.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Milan averages 4.4 corners per match, while Udinese averages 3.4. Over the last five games, the total exceeded 9.5 corners in 3 matches for Milan and 1 for Udinese. Among corner markets, the closest to the sum of average figures is a total of 8.5: over 8.5 is at 1.51, under 8.5 at 2.39. Milan is favored in the corner outcome with odds of 1.29. Considering the average values and frequency of totals exceeding 9.5 for Milan, expecting 8-9 corners in this match seems justified, and a bet on over 8.5 corners appears sound. However, Udinese delivers fewer corners, which might affect the overall number of set-pieces.