Prediction for match AEK Athens — Universitatea Craiova

Match Analysis: AEK Athens vs Universitatea Craiova

On December 18th, AEK Athens will face Universitatea Craiova in the Conference League. According to the 1X2 odds, AEK Athens is favored to win at 1.50, a draw is priced at 4.42, and a victory for Universitatea Craiova is at 7.28. The probability percentages are distributed as follows: AEK Athens 64.71%, draw 21.96%, Universitatea Craiova 13.33%. AEK Athens is clearly the favorite in this matchup, as reflected by both the odds and probability percentages. Bookmakers' expectations are focused on a win for the Greek team, although the draw is considered more likely than a win for Universitatea Craiova.

Team Results and Statistics

Let's look at the recent performances of both teams. AEK Athens has secured victories against Panetolikos (5-0), Samsunspor (2-1), and Atromitos (4-1), and also won against Panathinaikos (3-2) and Fiorentina (1-0) in their last five matches. Universitatea Craiova, in their last five, defeated Hermannstadt (2-0) and Mainz 05 (1-0), drew with CFR Cluj (1-1) and Universitatea Cluj (0-0), and lost to Sparta Prague (1-2). The last head-to-head meeting between these teams on August 15, 2019, ended in a 1-1 draw. In secondary statistics, AEK Athens had an average possession of 52.8% in the last five matches, committed 15 fouls, received 2.8 yellow cards, and had 1 offside per game. Universitatea Craiova recorded 52.4% possession, 11.6 fouls, 1.6 yellow cards, and 1.8 offsides.

How Many Goals to Expect?

The goal profile of the teams in recent matches is quite different. AEK Athens has an average total of 3.8 goals in their last five matches, scoring an average of 3 goals and conceding 0.8. Universitatea Craiova averages 1.6 goals per match, scoring 1 and conceding 0.6. In terms of over/under, AEK Athens had 4 out of 5 matches with over 2.5 goals, while Universitatea Craiova had only 1 out of 5 over and 4 under 2.5. For halves, AEK Athens had 2 out of 5 games with over 1.5 goals in the first half and 4 out of 5 in the second half. Universitatea Craiova exceeded 1.5 goals only once in each half in their last five. In terms of goal intervals, AEK Athens most frequently scores between 61-75 minutes (38%), while Universitatea Craiova scores between 31-45 minutes (50%). In terms of conceding, AEK Athens is most vulnerable between 61-75 minutes (33%), while Universitatea Craiova concedes between 46-60 minutes (40%). Overall, AEK Athens' attacking strength and frequent over 2.5 goal matches, compared to Universitatea Craiova's lower-scoring profile, suggest a high-scoring game with a clear advantage for the Greek team.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

On corners, AEK Athens averages 3.4 per match, while Universitatea Craiova averages 4.8. In the last five games, both teams had 2 out of 5 matches with over 9.5 corners, and 3 out of 5 with under. Considering the total corners, the line closest to the sum of their averages (3.4 + 4.8 = 8.2) is over/under 8.5. The odds for over 8.5 corners are 1.56, while under 8.5 is at 2.18. In the corners market, AEK Athens is favored with odds of 1.13. Statistics indicate that neither team tends to significantly exceed their corner averages, with figures often around 8-9 per game. Thus, a bet on over 8.5 corners seems logical, though there is a risk of an under result.