Prediction for match Ajax — Excelsior, 22.11.2025

Match Analysis: Ajax vs Excelsior

On Saturday, November 22, Ajax will face Excelsior in the Eredivisie. Bookmakers offer odds of 1.37 for an Ajax win, 5.34 for a draw, and 7.85 for an Excelsior victory. The probability distribution is as follows: 69.88% for an Ajax win, 17.93% for a draw, and 12.20% for an Excelsior win. These figures clearly highlight Ajax as the favorite, with Excelsior being the clear underdog.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Ajax has averaged 49.4% possession, 1.4 yellow cards, 9.4 fouls, and 1 offside per game. Excelsior, over the same period, has averaged 54.4% possession, 1.2 yellow cards, 12.6 fouls, and 0.4 offsides. Ajax's last three matches: 09.11.2025 Utrecht - Ajax 2-1, 05.11.2025 Ajax - Galatasaray 0-3, 01.11.2025 Ajax - Heerenveen 1-1. Excelsior's recent matches: 08.11.2025 Excelsior - Heracles 1-2, 01.11.2025 Telstar - Excelsior 2-2, 29.10.2025 Excelsior Maassluis - Excelsior 1-0. In their last head-to-head on 24.04.2024, Ajax and Excelsior drew 2-2, with the total over 2.5 goals.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In Ajax's last five matches, the total over 2.5 goals occurred 4 out of 5 times, while for Excelsior, it was only 2 out of 5. Both teams rarely score in the first half, with only 1 out of 5 matches having over 1.5 goals. The second half is more active, with both Ajax and Excelsior having 3 out of 5 matches with over 1.5 goals. Average stats over 5 matches: Ajax scores 3.8 goals per game, with 1.2 scored and 2.6 conceded, while Excelsior averages 2.2 goals per match, with 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded. Ajax most frequently scores between the 31st and 45th minutes (40%), while Excelsior scores in the first 15 minutes (38%). Ajax is most vulnerable between the 46th and 60th minutes (56%), while Excelsior is between the 76th and 90th minutes (40%). Based on this data, a logical bet would be on Ajax's individual total over 2, with odds of 1.53. Ajax consistently creates chances and is effective, especially in the second half, while Excelsior's defense doesn't seem reliable.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Ajax averages 2.6 corners per game, while Excelsior averages 7.4. Ajax has gone over 9.5 corners in 2 out of 5 matches, and Excelsior in 3. For a total over 8.5 corners, the odds are 1.52, and under 8.5 is 2.36. Excelsior is the favorite for corners with odds of 3.88. Considering Excelsior's high activity in this area and their average over 5 matches, betting on over 8.5 corners seems reasonable.