Prediction for match Ajax — Fortuna Sittard, 14.02.2026

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the Dutch Eredivisie, Ajax faces Fortuna Sittard on 14.02.2026. The odds for an Ajax win are 1.37, a draw is at 5.29, and a Fortuna Sittard victory is priced at 7.95. Probability-wise: Ajax has a 69.87% chance of winning, 18.09% for a draw, and 12.04% for Fortuna Sittard. This highlights Ajax as the clear favorite, though lines on totals and both teams to score indicate expectations of a high-scoring match. Over 2.75 goals is at 1.58, both teams to score: yes is at 1.74, no is at 1.98. Ajax's individual total over 2.5 goals is offered at 2.18, and the same for Fortuna Sittard is at 4.05. First half total options: over 1.5 goals at 2.20, under 1.5 goals at 1.63. Ajax to win the first half is at 1.76. Correct score options include: 2:0 at 7.00, 2:1 at 8.00, 1:0 at 8.50, 1:1 at 9.00, 3:0 at 9.50, 3:1 at 10.00.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Ajax averages 60.6% possession, 0.6 yellow cards, 9.6 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. Fortuna Sittard averages 39.4% possession, 2 yellow cards, 12.2 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. Ajax's last three matches: 08.02.2026 - AZ Alkmaar - Ajax 1-1, 01.02.2026 - Excelsior - Ajax 2-2, 28.01.2026 - Ajax - Olympiakos 1-2. Fortuna Sittard's last three: 07.02.2026 - Fortuna Sittard - Sparta Rotterdam 2-2, 01.02.2026 - Heracles - Fortuna Sittard 2-1, 25.01.2026 - Groningen - Fortuna Sittard 1-2. In their last head-to-head on 06.12.2025, Fortuna Sittard lost to Ajax 1-3.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Over their last five matches, Ajax has an average total of 2.8 goals, while Fortuna Sittard averages 3.4. Both teams score an average of 1.6 goals per game, with Ajax conceding 1.2 and Fortuna Sittard 1.8. In their last five, Ajax's matches went over 2.5 goals 3 times, while Fortuna Sittard's did so 5 out of 5 times. By halves, Ajax scored over 1.5 goals in the first half 2 times and in the second half 4 times, while Fortuna Sittard did so 4 and 2 times respectively. Ajax most frequently scores between the 46-60 and 61-75 minutes (29% each), and concedes most in the final stages (76-90 minutes - 43%). Fortuna Sittard is most prolific between 31-45 minutes (38%), with goals conceded evenly distributed between the end of the first and second halves (33% each). These stats suggest a high likelihood of a goal-filled game, especially in the second half. The combined goal metrics and frequency of over 2.5 goals for both teams make a bet on over 2.75 goals at 1.58 a logical choice.

Corner Totals Analysis

Ajax averages 5 corners per game over their last five matches, while Fortuna Sittard averages 3.2. In the last five encounters, the total corners over 9.5 hit 2 times for Ajax and 4 times for Fortuna Sittard. The line for total corners over 9.5 is at 1.62, under 9.5 at 2.14. Ajax is the favorite in corner outcomes with odds of 1.15. Considering the average corner sum and frequency of over 9.5 corners for Fortuna Sittard, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified. It's also worth noting that Ajax registers more offsides (4 out of 5 over 4.5), while Fortuna Sittard does so 1 out of 5.