Prediction for match Ajax — NEC Nijmegen

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the Eredivisie clash between Ajax and NEC Nijmegen on February 21, the bookmakers favor Ajax. Ajax's victory is priced at 1.79, a draw at 4.10, and NEC Nijmegen's win at 4.17. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Ajax to win 53.60%, a draw 23.40%, and NEC Nijmegen to win 23.01%. This reflects confidence in Ajax's attacking potential, although NEC Nijmegen is not seen as a clear underdog by percentage. The line also features extended totals and options for both teams to score.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Ajax shows 59.6% possession, averages 0.2 yellow cards, 9.8 fouls, and 1.4 offsides per game. NEC Nijmegen's stats are: 61% possession, 1.8 yellow cards, 9.2 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. Ajax's last three results: 14.02.2026 - Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard - 4-1, 08.02.2026 - AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax - 1-1, 01.02.2026 - Excelsior vs Ajax - 2-2. NEC Nijmegen's last three matches: 17.02.2026 - Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen - 1-1, 11.02.2026 - NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht - 1-3, 07.02.2026 - NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles - 4-1. Their last head-to-head was on 20.12.2025: NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax - 2-2.

How Many Goals Will Be in the Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Match

Both teams have averaged 2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in their last five matches, with an overall scoring rate of 3.2 goals per game. For over 2.5 goals: Ajax has gone over in 3 out of 5, NEC Nijmegen the same - 3 out of 5. In the first half, over 1.5 goals was recorded 3 times out of 5 for both teams, and similarly in the second half. Goal intervals: Ajax most often scored in the first 15 minutes (30%), while NEC Nijmegen scored in the 31-45, 46-60, and 61-75 minute intervals (25% each). For conceded goals: Ajax allowed most goals in the 31-45 and 76-90 minute intervals (33% each), NEC Nijmegen in the first 15 minutes (38%). The consistent scoring of both teams, frequent over 2.5 goals, and the distribution of goals across halves and intervals suggest that betting on over 2.75 goals at 1.50 is a solid choice.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Ajax averages 4.8 corners in their last five matches, NEC Nijmegen 4.2, totaling 9. For over 9.5 corners: Ajax 1 out of 5, NEC Nijmegen 2 out of 5. The line closest to the average sum is 9.5: over 9.5 corners - 1.82, under 9.5 - 1.93. Ajax is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.50. Considering both teams' average stats, betting on a total of around 9-10 corners seems logical, but over 9.5 has not been frequent, so a cautious approach to betting on corner overs is advised.