Prediction for match Ajax — Olympiakos

Match Analysis: Ajax vs Olympiakos

On January 28, Ajax will face Olympiakos in the Champions League. The odds for an Olympiakos victory are 2.42, while Ajax's win is at 3.02, and a draw is at 3.70. In terms of probabilities: Olympiakos is rated at 40.73%, Ajax at 32.64%, and a draw at 26.64%. Olympiakos appears to be the favorite by percentage, but the gap is not significant. The market also offers both teams to score: yes - 1.53, no - 2.37, indicating an expectation of goals from both sides.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Ajax has an average possession of 60.6%, 1.4 yellow cards, 9.4 fouls, and 0.4 offsides. Olympiakos, in the same period, shows 53.4% possession, 1.4 yellow cards, 11 fouls, and 1.6 offsides per game. In their last three matches, Ajax played against Volendam (2-0), Villarreal (2-1), and Go Ahead Eagles (2-2). Olympiakos faced Volos (1-0), Bayer (2-0), and Atromitos (2-0). In their head-to-head match on July 19, 2024, Ajax defeated Olympiakos 1-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, Ajax has gone over 2.5 goals in 4 matches and under in 1, whereas Olympiakos has gone over in 0 and under in 5. Ajax averages 4 goals per game, while Olympiakos averages 1.4. Ajax scores 1.8 and concedes 2.2, Olympiakos scores 1.2 and concedes only 0.2 per match. By halves, Ajax has gone over 1.5 goals in 4 out of 5 first halves and the same in the second, while Olympiakos has gone over 1.5 in 2 out of 5 first halves and none in the second. By intervals: Ajax most often scores from the 76th to the 90th minute (31%) and concedes from the 61st to the 75th (43%). Olympiakos most frequently scores from the 16th to the 30th minute (50%) and concedes evenly in three intervals - 16-30, 31-45, and 46-60 (33% each). Overall, Ajax has a pronounced over-profile, while Olympiakos has an under-profile, yet both teams regularly score, and the line for both teams to score: yes is at 1.53. Considering Ajax's attacking potential and Olympiakos's defensive stability, betting on both teams to score: yes seems logical.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

Ajax averages 4.4 corners over 5 matches, while Olympiakos averages 8.6. For the total of 9.5 corners: both teams have had 3 out of 5 matches go over. Among the corner totals closest to the average sum (13) is the total of 9.5, for which there are a couple of outcomes: total corners over 9.5 - 2.03, under 9.5 - 1.70. In the corners outcome, Olympiakos is favored with odds of 1.95. Given Olympiakos's high activity in deliveries, betting on total corners over 9.5 seems justified, and Olympiakos might outperform their opponent in the number of corners.