Prediction for match Al-Najma — Al Riyadh, 28.01.2026

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the Saudi Arabian Pro League match between Al-Najma and Al Riyadh, bookmakers see the teams as fairly evenly matched, but slightly favor Al Riyadh. The odds for an Al Riyadh win are 2.18, for Al-Najma are 2.92, and a draw is at 3.36. In terms of probability, Al Riyadh has a 41.75% chance, Al-Najma 31.17%, and a draw 27.09%. This reflects a moderate advantage for Al Riyadh, but Al-Najma is not seen as a clear underdog. The total goals market is also interesting: over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.80, and 'both teams to score: yes' is at 1.64, suggesting an expected high-scoring game from both sides.

Team Results and Statistics

Al-Najma has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches. In the last three games: on 25.01.2026 Al-Najma lost to Al-Qadisiyah 1-3, on 20.01.2026 they drew 0-0 with Al Shabab, and on 16.01.2026 they drew 1-1 with Al Fateh. Al Riyadh has drawn three times and lost twice in their last five matches: on 25.01.2026 they drew 1-1 with Al Hilal, on 21.01.2026 they drew 2-2 with Al Akhdood, and on 18.01.2026 they lost 1-3 to Al Taawoun. In their head-to-head on 14.09.2025, Al Riyadh won 2-1 against Al-Najma. In terms of secondary statistics, Al-Najma averages 46.6% possession, 1.2 yellow cards, commits 10.4 fouls, and 2.4 offsides per game over 5 matches. Al Riyadh averages 51% possession, 3 yellow cards, 15.6 fouls, and 0.8 offsides per game.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Both teams show a tendency for high-scoring matches. Al-Najma averages a total of 3.6 goals over five games, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.2 per game. Al Riyadh averages 3.2 goals, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2. Regarding over 2.5 goals: both teams have seen 3 out of 5 matches end with three or more goals. In the first half, Al-Najma has 2 out of 5 over 1.5, and Al Riyadh 1 out of 5. In the second half, Al-Najma has 3 out of 5 over 1.5, and Al Riyadh 4 out of 5. In terms of goal intervals: both teams frequently score between the 61st-75th and 76th-90th minutes (33% each). Al-Najma often concedes early (0-15 minutes - 30%) and at the end of the first half (31-45 minutes - 30%), while Al Riyadh concedes more in the second interval (16-30 minutes - 33%). All this suggests that the match could be high-scoring, especially in the second half. The most logical bet appears to be on over 2.5 goals at 1.80, considering the consistent over totals for both teams, high average goal figures, and marked activity after the break.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Al-Najma averages 4.6 corners per match, and Al Riyadh 7.2, totaling 11.8. For the over 9.5 corners market: both teams have seen 3 out of their last 5 games end with double-digit corner counts. For total corners 9.5, there are both outcomes: over 9.5 is priced at 1.75, under 9.5 at 1.92. Al Riyadh is favored in the corners market with odds of 2.00. Considering the high average corners and frequent over totals, a bet on over 9.5 corners appears justified. Individual corner totals for Al Riyadh can also be considered, given their consistent flank activity and high average.