Prediction for match Al Nassr — Al-Najma

Match Analysis: Al Nassr vs Al-Najma

In the upcoming Saudi Pro League fixture, Al Nassr will face Al-Najma on April 3, 2026. The odds strongly favor an Al Nassr victory at 1.01, with a draw at 20.00 and an Al-Najma win at 32.00. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Al Nassr - 92.42%, draw - 4.67%, Al-Najma - 2.92%. These figures highlight Al Nassr's dominance across all key areas and statistical parameters, as confirmed by the results of recent meetings between these teams.

Team Results and Statistics

Over the last five matches, Al Nassr has shown strong ball possession at 58.6%, averages 2 yellow cards, commits 14.8 fouls, and records 1.6 offsides per game. Al-Najma lags behind in these metrics: 45.8% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 9.4 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. Al Nassr's last three matches: March 14, 2026 - Al Khaleej 0-5 Al Nassr, March 7, 2026 - Al Nassr 1-0 Neom, February 28, 2026 - Al Fayha 1-3 Al Nassr. Al-Najma's last three matches: March 12, 2026 - Al-Najma 1-3 Damak, March 6, 2026 - Al Hilal 4-0 Al-Najma, February 28, 2026 - Al-Najma 1-3 Al Akhdoud. Their head-to-head on February 25, 2026, ended with a 0-5 defeat for Al-Najma.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Both teams show a strong over-profile on totals. In Al Nassr's last 5 games, the total over 2.5 goals was achieved 4 times, while Al-Najma hit it 5 out of 5. Al Nassr's matches average 3.8 goals, with the team scoring an average of 3.6 and conceding just 0.2. Al-Najma's average total is even higher at 4.4, but they only score 0.6 while conceding 3.8. By halves, Al Nassr exceeded 1.5 goals in the first half 3 out of 5 times and 4 out of 5 in the second. Al-Najma similarly: 3 out of 5 for over 1.5 in the first half and 5 out of 5 in the second. Al Nassr scores most frequently between the 76th and 90th minute (50%), while Al-Najma does the same (45%). Both teams are most vulnerable to conceding in the final stages: Al Nassr - 36%, Al-Najma - 33% between the 76th and 90th minute. This total and half-time profile, along with the class difference, suggests a high-scoring match heavily in Al Nassr's favor. A bet on over 4.5 goals is priced at 2.14 and appears justified given the statistical combination.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Al Nassr averages 6.6 corners over 5 matches, while Al-Najma averages 2.8. For totals over 9.5 corners: Al Nassr has 2 out of 5, Al-Najma 4 out of 5. Among available corner totals is a line at 10.5: over 10.5 is at 1.87, under 10.5 is also at 1.87. This figure is close to the combined average corners of both teams (9.4). Al Nassr is the favorite in corner outcomes with odds of 1.04. Based on the statistics, we can expect 9-11 corners in the match, and a bet on over 10.5 corners seems reasonable considering Al Nassr's attacking style and Al-Najma's frequent corners in recent games.