Prediction for match Alaves — Rayo Vallecano

Match Analysis: Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano

In the Copa del Rey on January 14, Alaves will face Rayo Vallecano. The odds for an Alaves victory are 2.66, while a win for Rayo Vallecano is at 3.04, and a draw is priced at 3.06. Based on probabilities, Alaves is given a 36.44% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano 31.88%, and a draw 31.68%. There is no clear favorite in this matchup, but Alaves has a slight edge in percentages. This is reflected in the odds, where Alaves has a slightly lower rate for victory compared to their opponent. The tournament stage is not specified, but the match promises to be tense given the distribution of chances.

Team Results and Statistics

Looking at Alaves' last three matches, on January 10, they lost to Villarreal 1-3, drew 1-1 with Real Oviedo on January 4, and lost to Osasuna 0-3 on December 20. Rayo Vallecano, in their last three games, defeated Mallorca 2-1 on January 11, beat Granada 3-1 on January 6, and drew 1-1 with Getafe on January 2. On average over five matches, Alaves has 54% ball possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 12.6 fouls, and 1 offside. Rayo Vallecano has 60.2% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 11.2 fouls, and 2.8 offsides. In their last head-to-head on October 26, 2025, Rayo Vallecano won 1-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Over a series of five matches, Alaves has an average total of 2.6 goals, while Rayo Vallecano has 3.2. During this period, Alaves has seen over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches, and Rayo Vallecano in 4 out of 5. By halves, Alaves recorded more than 1.5 goals in the second half 4 times out of 5, and Rayo Vallecano 3 out of 5. In the first half, Alaves did not exceed 1.5 goals, while Rayo Vallecano did so in 1 out of 5. In terms of scoring intervals, Alaves most frequently scores between the 61st and 75th minutes (44%) and concedes late (76th-90th minutes - 50%). Rayo Vallecano's goals are most often distributed across three intervals: 0-15, 31-45, and 61-75 minutes - each at 27%. Their conceded goals also mostly occur late (76th-90th minutes - 40%). Considering that both teams tend to have productive second halves and Rayo Vallecano has a high average of goals scored (1.8 per match), it is reasonable to expect at least two goals in this match. The optimal bet seems to be over 1.5 goals at 1.58, as this outcome is supported by the frequency and average totals of both teams.

Corner Totals Analysis

The average number of corners for both teams over five matches is 5.6 each. Over this period, Alaves had over 9.5 corners in 3 out of 5 matches, and Rayo Vallecano in 2 out of 5. Among the proposed corner totals, the line of 10.5 is closest to the sum of average values (11.2): over 10.5 corners is at 2.11, under 10.5 at 1.62. For corners, Alaves is favored with odds of 1.82. Considering the average values and frequencies, it makes sense to consider the option of over 10.5 corners, but cautiously, as this outcome was not consistent in recent matches.