Prediction for match Alianza Atletico — Deportivo Garcilaso

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the Sudamericana tournament on March 4, 2026, Alianza Atletico will face Deportivo Garcilaso. According to the 1X2 odds, Alianza Atletico is the favorite with odds of 2.20, a draw is priced at 3.02, and a win for Deportivo Garcilaso is at 3.47. Looking at the probability percentages, Alianza Atletico has 42.33%, a draw has 30.84%, and Deportivo Garcilaso has 26.84%. This setup makes Alianza Atletico the most favorable option for a win bet.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last five games, Alianza Atletico has shown the following stats: 41% ball possession, an average of 2.2 yellow cards, 13.2 fouls, and 2.4 offsides. Deportivo Garcilaso has 56.2% possession, 3 yellow cards, 11.4 fouls, and 3.6 offsides. In the last three matches, Alianza Atletico played as follows: 27.02.2026 - Alianza Atletico vs ADT - 0-0, 22.02.2026 - Cienciano vs Alianza Atletico - 1-1, 15.02.2026 - Alianza Atletico vs Alianza Lima - 0-0. Deportivo Garcilaso in the last three encounters: 28.02.2026 - Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cienciano - 2-3, 23.02.2026 - UCW Moquegua vs Deportivo Garcilaso - 1-0, 14.02.2026 - Deportivo Garcilaso vs ADT - 1-0. In their last head-to-head on 05.10.2025, Deportivo Garcilaso lost to Alianza Atletico 2-4.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a five-match series, Alianza Atletico has an average of 0.4 goals scored, 0.4 conceded, with a total goal average of 0.8. Deportivo Garcilaso has higher numbers: 1 scored, 1.2 conceded, with a total of 2.2 goals. Alianza Atletico had no over 2.5 total goals in any of their last five matches (0 out of 5), while Deportivo Garcilaso had only 1 out of 5. In the first half, Alianza Atletico had just 1 out of 5 matches with over 1.5 goals, and Deportivo Garcilaso had 0 out of 5. In the second half, Alianza Atletico had no matches over 1.5, while Deportivo Garcilaso had 3 out of 5. In terms of goal intervals, Alianza Atletico most frequently scores between 0-15, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes (33% each), and concedes between 16-30 minutes (100%). Deportivo Garcilaso most often scores from 46 to 60 minutes (67%) and concedes at the end of the game - from 76 to 90 minutes (60%). Considering Alianza Atletico's low scoring and only one over 2.5 total from Deportivo Garcilaso, a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.47 seems justified.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Alianza Atletico averages 2.4 corners per game, while Deportivo Garcilaso averages 5. In the last five matches, Alianza Atletico had no games with over 9.5 total corners, while Deportivo Garcilaso had 2 out of 5. Looking at the total line, for 9.5 corners, both options are available: over 9.5 corners - 2.28, under 9.5 - 1.56. For the corner outcome, Alianza Atletico is the favorite with odds of 1.60. The combined corner stats of both teams do not support a high total, so a bet on under 9.5 corners seems logical.