Prediction for match Alverca — Arouca

Match Analysis: Alverca vs Arouca

In the Primeira Liga on April 24, 2026, Alverca will face Arouca. The 1X2 odds are as follows: Alverca win at 2.38, draw at 3.28, Arouca win at 3.26. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Alverca - 40.72%, draw - 29.55%, Arouca - 29.73%. Alverca is seen as the favorite, but the gap between the teams is slight, which is reflected in the probability percentages. Over/under goal options: over 2.5 is at 2.11, under 2.5 at 1.79. Both teams to score: yes - 1.78, no - 1.93. Alverca's individual total over 1 is 1.54, Arouca's over 1 is 1.90. Double chance for Arouca and draw is 1.62.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Alverca has an average possession of 47.6%, receives 0.8 yellow cards, commits 10.2 fouls, and records 1.2 offsides per game. Arouca, in the same period, has 45% possession, receives 2.6 yellow cards, commits 12.8 fouls, and records 1.2 offsides. Alverca's last three matches: April 18, 2026 - Nacional 1-0 Alverca, April 12, 2026 - Alverca 3-1 Casa Pia, April 4, 2026 - Rio Ave 1-2 Alverca. Arouca's: April 19, 2026 - Arouca 1-0 Estrela, April 12, 2026 - Braga 1-0 Arouca, April 6, 2026 - Arouca 3-2 Estoril. In their head-to-head on December 14, 2025, Arouca defeated Alverca 1-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Alverca has an average total of 3.4 goals, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.8 per game. Arouca's figures are lower: 2.2 goals on average, 1.2 scored and 1 conceded. For over 2.5 goals: Alverca had 4 out of 5 matches go over, Arouca had 2 out of 5. By halves, Alverca had 1 out of 5 go over 1.5 in the first half and 3 out of 5 in the second. Arouca had 1 out of 5 in the first and 2 out of 5 in the second. Goal intervals: Alverca most frequently scores between the 61st and 75th minutes (38%), while Arouca scores in two intervals: 0-15 and 46-60 minutes (33% each). Conceded goals: Alverca has four intervals at 22% - 0-15, 16-30, 46-60, and 76-90 minutes, while Arouca most often concedes at the end (76-90 minutes - 33%). This profile suggests that Alverca tends to have high-scoring matches, while Arouca plays more low-scoring games, but both teams are capable of scoring. The optimal choice seems to be a bet on over 2.0 goals at 1.51, considering Alverca's high scoring and Arouca's resilience.

Corner Totals Analysis

Average corners per game: Alverca delivers 5.8, Arouca 3.8. In their last five matches, Alverca had 4 out of 5 games with over 9.5 corners, Arouca had 2 out of 5. Among the corner totals, the closest to the average sum (9.6) is 9.5. For this total: over 9.5 is at 1.93, under 9.5 at 1.80. No clear favorite emerges for corner outcomes. Statistically, it's logical to consider a bet on over 9.5 corners, as Alverca regularly delivers many corners, and the overall profile of both teams suggests active wing play.