Prediction for match Alverca — Casa Pia

Match Analysis: Alverca vs Casa Pia

In the Primeira Liga on April 12, Alverca will face Casa Pia. Bookmakers have set the odds for an Alverca win at 2.08, a draw at 3.34, and a Casa Pia victory at 3.97. In terms of probability, Alverca is given a 46.58% chance of winning, a draw is at 29.01%, and Casa Pia has a 24.41% chance. Alverca is highlighted as the favorite, but a draw isn't out of the question, judging by the odds and probability distribution. The most likely outcome according to the odds is a win for Alverca, though Casa Pia is not without hope.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Alverca averaged 48.6% possession, 1.2 yellow cards, 7.4 fouls, and 1.2 offsides per game. Casa Pia, over the same period, averaged 35.8% possession, 1.8 yellow cards, 18 fouls, and 1 offside. Alverca's last three matches were: 04.04.2026 Rio Ave 1-2 Alverca, 22.03.2026 Alverca 1-4 Sporting Lisbon, 14.03.2026 Gil Vicente 2-2 Alverca. Casa Pia's last three matches were: 06.04.2026 Casa Pia 1-1 Benfica, 20.03.2026 Estrela 4-0 Casa Pia, 07.03.2026 Estoril 0-0 Casa Pia. In their last head-to-head on 29.11.2025, Casa Pia lost to Alverca 0-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Alverca has an average total of 2.8 goals, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.6 per game. Casa Pia averages 2 goals, scoring only 0.4 and conceding 1.6. For over 2.5 goals: Alverca has 3 out of 5, Casa Pia only 1 out of 5. In the first half, over 1.5 goals were recorded once for Alverca and twice for Casa Pia. In the second half, Alverca hit over 1.5 goals 3 out of 5 times, Casa Pia only once. Goal intervals show Alverca most frequently scores between 46-60 minutes (40%), while Casa Pia scores between 31-45 minutes (44%). Alverca concedes evenly across four intervals at 22%, Casa Pia concedes 100% between 61-75 minutes. Given Casa Pia's low scoring rate and the not-so-high frequency of over 2.5 goals for both teams, a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.72 seems logical. Supporting this choice is Casa Pia's average goals scored (0.4) and only one over 2.5 in their last five matches.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Alverca averages 6.4 corners per match, Casa Pia 3.4. For over 9.5 corners: Alverca has 3 out of 5 games, Casa Pia 2 out of 5. The total closest to the average sum (9.8) is 9.5, for which both outcomes are possible. Over 9.5 corners is at 1.89, under 9.5 at 1.79. Alverca is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.51. Given these figures, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified, considering Alverca's activity in corner deliveries. Also, consider betting on Alverca to win on corners, given the difference in averages.