Prediction for match Alverca — Estrela, 31.01.2026

Match Analysis: Alverca vs Estrela

In the Primeira Liga, Alverca will face Estrela on January 31. The odds for an Alverca win are 2.15, a draw is priced at 3.34, and an Estrela victory is offered at 3.74. The probability of an Alverca win is estimated at 45.07%, a draw at 29.01%, and an Estrela win at 25.91%. Based on these figures, Alverca appears to be the favorite, but Estrela also has a chance for a positive result. The match promises to be intriguing in terms of the battle for points, considering the percentage difference between the teams is not very large.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last five matches, Alverca has recorded the following statistics: 38.6% ball possession, an average of 2.2 yellow cards, 12 fouls, and 0.4 offsides per game. During the same period, Estrela shows 40.6% possession, 3 yellow cards, 17 fouls, and 2 offsides on average. In their last three encounters, Alverca lost to Braga 0-5, defeated Moreirense 2-1, and won against Famalicão 1-0. Estrela lost to Benfica 0-4, suffered a heavy defeat against Estoril 0-5, and played to an exciting 3-3 draw with Braga. In their head-to-head meeting on August 25, 2025, the teams drew 2-2.

Teams' Goal Scoring Trends

Both teams have a pronounced over-profile in their last five matches: Alverca has seen over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 matches, and Estrela likewise in 4 out of 5. The average number of goals per game is 3.4 for Alverca and 4 for Estrela, indicating high-scoring matches. Alverca scores an average of 0.8 and concedes 2.6, while Estrela scores 1.2 and concedes 2.8. In terms of halves, Alverca has 2 out of 5 games with over 1.5 goals in the first half and 4 out of 5 in the second, while Estrela has 2 out of 5 in the first half and 3 out of 5 in the second. Regarding goal distribution by minutes, Alverca most frequently scores between the 46th and 60th minutes (31%) and concedes mainly from the 61st to the 75th minute (60%). Estrela's goals are most frequent in the intervals of 16-30, 46-60, and 61-75 minutes (22% each), with goals conceded mainly in the 46-60 minute range (36%). This goal and total profile for both teams supports a bet on over 2.5 goals at 2.24, given the frequency of this outcome in recent matches and the high average scoring figures.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

On average, Alverca earns 3.6 corners per game, while Estrela earns 2.8, totaling 6.4. In a series of five matches, only 1 out of 5 games for Alverca went over 9.5 corners, while Estrela had 3 out of 5. Among the available corner totals, there is an option for 9.5: over 9.5 is priced at 2.15, under 9.5 at 1.58. Alverca is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.67. Based on the average sum of corners, it's logical to consider an under 9.5 total, as both teams have not shown high activity in this aspect in recent matches. However, if we look at the frequency of occurrences, Estrela has a certain tendency towards a higher number of corners, but the overall profile for both teams remains low.