Prediction for match Alverca — Moreirense, 17.01.2026

Odds and Probabilities

In the Primeira Liga on January 17, Alverca will face Moreirense. The odds for an Alverca win are 2.75, for Moreirense 2.95, and a draw is at 3.04. The probability percentages are as follows: Alverca - 35.25%, draw - 31.89%, Moreirense - 32.86%. Based on these numbers, bookmakers do not see a clear favorite, and both teams have roughly equal chances of success. The betting options for the main outcomes appear balanced, as confirmed by the distribution of percentages. Bets on total goals and both teams to score also have interesting values, but there's no clear bias towards one side.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Alverca played as follows: January 4 - Alverca vs Famalicão 1-0, December 27 - Estoril vs Alverca 4-1, December 22 - Alverca vs Porto 0-3. During the same period, Moreirense had these results: January 11 - Moreirense vs Tondela 1-0, January 3 - ABC vs Moreirense 0-2, December 20 - Estrela vs Moreirense 0-0. Looking at the average metrics over five games, Alverca has 40.2% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 10.8 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. Moreirense has 55.4% possession, 2 yellow cards, 14 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. In their head-to-head on August 10, 2025, Moreirense defeated Alverca 2-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Over a series of five matches, Alverca has an average total of 2.2 goals per game, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.6. Moreirense has an average total of 2.6, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.4. In the same period, both teams had 2 out of 5 matches with over 2.5 goals and 3 out of 5 with under 2.5. By halves, Alverca had over 1.5 goals in the first half only once in 5 games, and 3 times in the second half. Moreirense similarly had over 1.5 goals in the first half only once, and 2 out of 5 in the second half. Alverca most frequently scores between the 46th and 60th minute (44%), and Moreirense also in this period (50%). Alverca concedes most between the 61st and 75th minute (50%), while Moreirense has a more even distribution: 22% in four different intervals. Based on these data, a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.58 seems justified: both teams do not show high scoring potential, with under hitting 3 out of 5 for both, and average goals scored not exceeding 1.2. There are few goals in the first half, and slightly more activity in the second half, but not critical for an over profile.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Alverca averages 4.2 corners per match, Moreirense 4.8. Over the last five games, the total corners over 9.5 occurred for Alverca 2 times out of 5, and for Moreirense 1 time out of 5. The line for total corners offers: over 9.5 at 2.24, under 9.5 at 1.53. The option for under 9.5 corners looks logical, considering the average stats of both teams and the frequency of occurrences. On the corner outcome, Alverca is at 1.98, Moreirense at 2.12. Overall, both teams are not inclined to overly active play on corners, and a bet on a low total in this category seems justified. Additionally, Alverca had over 8.5 corners 4 times out of 5, while Moreirense only 2 times out of 5, which also confirms a moderate profile in this component.