Prediction for match Alverca — Nacional, 07.12.2025

Match Odds and Probabilities

In the Primeira Liga on December 7, Alverca will face Nacional. The odds for an Alverca win are 2.26, a draw is priced at 3.28, and a Nacional victory is at 3.54. In terms of probabilities, Alverca is given a 42.97% chance, a draw 29.60%, and Nacional 27.43%. Alverca is the favorite, but the difference between the teams is not overwhelming. Bets on a draw and a Nacional win come with significantly higher odds, reflecting a moderate edge for Alverca.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Alverca has shown 49% possession, averages 2.4 yellow cards, commits 12 fouls, and has 2 offsides per game. Nacional has 42.2% possession, 3 yellow cards, 13.4 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. Recent matches for Alverca: November 29 Casa Pia 0-2 Alverca, November 8 Alverca 1-1 Rio Ave, October 31 Sporting Lisbon 2-0 Alverca. For Nacional: November 29 Nacional 1-2 Benfica, November 9 Estrela 1-1 Nacional, November 1 Nacional 0-1 Famalicão. Both teams have been picking up points but also losing, indicating no clear dominance from either side.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Looking at scoring, Alverca has an average of 2.8 goals per match over the last 5 games, while Nacional has 2.6. Both teams score an average of 1.2 goals per game, with Alverca conceding 1.6 and Nacional 1.4. For over 2.5 goals: both teams have 2 out of 5 matches over and 3 out of 5 under. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred 2 times out of 5 for Alverca, 1 time for Nacional. In the second half, Alverca had 4 out of 5 over 1.5, Nacional 2 out of 5. Goal intervals show Alverca frequently scores between 61-75 and 76-90 minutes (40% each), while Nacional scores most from 46-60 minutes (50%). Conceding patterns: Alverca concedes most from 31-45 and 76-90 minutes (30% each), Nacional from 31-45 minutes (43%). Considering these stats, a bet on over 2.0 goals at 1.62 looks reasonable: both teams have averages above 2.5, Alverca's second half is particularly prolific, and their over 2.5 records match the unders.

Corner Totals Analysis

On corners, Alverca averages 3.8 per game, Nacional 3.6. In their last five matches, over 9.5 corners happened 3 times for both teams. The line offers over 9.5 corners at 1.94, under 9.5 at 1.75. Alverca is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.79. Considering the average total corners (7.4) and the frequency of over 9.5, it's logical to consider a bet on over 9.5 corners or on individual team totals. Overall, both teams can maintain a decent pace from corner kicks, suggesting at least 9-10 corners in the match.