Prediction for match Arouca — Nacional, 21.02.2026

Odds and Probability of Match Outcome

The Primeira Liga match between Arouca and Nacional is scheduled for 21.02.2026. According to the odds: Arouca's win is priced at 2.40, Nacional's victory at 3.10, and a draw at 3.43. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Arouca - 40.42%, draw - 28.28%, Nacional - 31.29%. This suggests a slight advantage for Arouca, but Nacional also has a decent chance for a positive result. The odds for total goals and both teams to score also look quite balanced, reflecting the attacking potential of both teams.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Arouca recorded the following results: 14.02.2026 Casa Pia - Arouca 3-2, 07.02.2026 Arouca - Vitória Guimarães 3-2, 31.01.2026 Rio Ave - Arouca 0-3. In their last three games, Nacional played as follows: 15.02.2026 Nacional - Porto 0-1, 08.02.2026 Nacional - Casa Pia 0-0, 01.02.2026 Sporting Lisbon - Nacional 2-1. Looking at the five-match averages, Arouca has 53.4% possession, 2.6 yellow cards, 12.8 fouls, and 2.2 offsides. Nacional has 49.4% possession, 2.8 yellow cards, 15.8 fouls, and 0.8 offsides. In their last head-to-head meeting on 20.09.2025, Nacional lost to Arouca 1-2.

How Many Goals Will Be Scored in Arouca vs. Nacional

In their last five matches, Arouca shows scoring efficiency: average total goals per match is 3.4, scoring 2 and conceding 1.4. Nacional's average total is 2.2, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1. In terms of over 2.5 goals, Arouca has 4 out of 5 matches over, and Nacional has 3 out of 5 over. For halves, Arouca has 2 out of 5 over 1.5 in the first half and 3 out of 5 in the second. Nacional has 1 out of 5 over 1.5 in the first half and 2 out of 5 in the second. Arouca most frequently scores in the 16-30, 31-45, and 46-60 minute intervals (29% each), while Nacional scores in the 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 minute intervals (25% each). Arouca concedes most often in the 31-45 minute interval (40%), and Nacional in the 16-30, 46-60, and 76-90 minute intervals (33% each). This indicates a high probability of a high-scoring match, and a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.96 seems justified.

Analysis of Corner Totals

On average, Arouca has 3.2 corners per match, while Nacional has 5.4. In their last five matches, Arouca has 2 out of 5 matches with over 9.5 corners, and Nacional has 5 out of 5 over 9.5. Among the available total corners, the line closest to the average sum (8.6) is over 8.5 at 1.50 and under 8.5 at 2.41. It is also worth noting that Arouca is favored on corner outcomes with odds of 1.71. Given Nacional's high activity in corners and Arouca's stable figures, it makes sense to consider a bet on over 8.5 corners.