Prediction for match Arsenal — Chelsea

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the marquee Premier League clash on March 1, 2026, Arsenal will face Chelsea. The odds for an Arsenal victory are 1.64, a draw is at 4.32, and a Chelsea win is at 5.74. Probability-wise: Arsenal - 60.05%, draw - 22.80%, Chelsea - 17.16%. The bookmakers see Arsenal's win as the most likely outcome, supported by both the odds and the percentage distribution. For total goals: Over 2.5 is at 1.78, Under 2.5 is at 2.20, both teams to score: yes - 1.74, no - 2.00. Among individual totals, Arsenal's over 1.5 is at 1.63, while Chelsea's over 0.5 is at 1.53. The option for Arsenal to win seems the most justified by the offered odds and statistics.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last three matches, Arsenal has shown strong results: February 22 - Tottenham vs Arsenal - 1-4, February 18 - Wolverhampton vs Arsenal - 2-2, February 15 - Arsenal vs Wigan Athletic - 4-0. Chelsea's last three games were: February 21 - Chelsea vs Burnley - 1-1, February 13 - Hull City vs Chelsea - 0-4, February 10 - Chelsea vs Leeds - 2-2. In their last head-to-head meeting on February 3, 2026, Arsenal narrowly won 1-0. Over the last 5 matches, Arsenal averages 60.4% possession, 1.2 yellow cards, 9.4 fouls, and 2 offsides per game. Chelsea's stats for the same parameters are: 66.4% possession, 2.8 yellows, 10.4 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. These numbers highlight that both teams control the ball well, but Chelsea tends to commit more fouls and receive more cautions.

Teams' Scoring Streaks

Arsenal and Chelsea have been playing high-scoring football in their last five matches. Arsenal's average total goals per match is 3.6, while Chelsea's is 3.0. Arsenal scores an average of 2.8 goals per game and concedes 0.8, while Chelsea scores 2 and concedes 1. Over 5 matches, Arsenal's over 2.5 total goals occurred 4 times, and Chelsea's 3 times. By halves, Arsenal had over 1.5 goals in the first half twice, and in the second half four times. Chelsea had over 1.5 goals in the first half once, and in the second half twice. Arsenal scores most frequently between the 16th-30th minutes (27%) and 61st-75th minutes (27%), Chelsea between the 46th-60th minutes (40%). Arsenal most often concedes between the 46th-60th and 61st-75th minutes (29% each), Chelsea between the 31st-45th and 61st-75th minutes (30% each). These data confirm that both teams can create and convert chances, especially in the second half. Given the high scoring in recent matches and the frequent occurrence of over 2.5 goals for both teams, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.78 seems logical for this encounter.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Arsenal averages 4.4 corners per game, while Chelsea averages 5.2. Over 5 matches, Arsenal's over 9.5 corners occurred once, and Chelsea's twice. Combining both teams' averages results in 9.6 corners per game. Among available corner totals, the 9.5 line is the closest: over 9.5 corners is at 1.75, under 9.5 is at 1.97. Arsenal is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.29. Considering the average corner activity and the not-so-high frequency of large totals, betting on over 9.5 corners seems justified but not overly reliable. In this match, expecting 9-10 corners, with Chelsea having a slight edge in activity, is reasonable.