Prediction for match Arsenal — Manchester City

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

The Arsenal vs Manchester City match in the English League Cup will take place on 22.03.2026. According to the 1X2 odds, an Arsenal win is priced at 2.43, while both a draw and a Manchester City win are set at 3.31. The probability percentages for the main outcomes are distributed as follows: Arsenal - 40.51%, draw - 29.74%, Manchester City - 29.74%. Thus, bookmakers do not highlight a clear favorite, but Arsenal has a slightly better chance. The most interesting betting option is the over 2.5 goals market at odds of 2.08.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Arsenal has an average possession of 53.8%, receives 1.2 yellow cards, commits 8.6 fouls, and records 1 offside per game. Manchester City, over the same period, has 62.4% possession, receives 1 yellow card, commits 10 fouls, and also records 1 offside. In their last three games, Arsenal defeated Bayer 2-0 (17.03), Everton 2-0 (14.03), and drew with Bayer 1-1 (11.03). Manchester City lost to Real Madrid 1-2 (17.03), drew 1-1 with West Ham (14.03), and also lost to Real Madrid 0-3 (11.03). In their last head-to-head on 21.09.2025, Arsenal and Manchester City drew 1-1.

Goals by Match Statistics

Arsenal, in a five-match series, has an average total of 2.0 goals per game, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.4. Manchester City shows a higher overall total of 3.2, with 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded. Arsenal has only gone over 2.5 goals in 1 out of 5 games, while Manchester City has done so in 4 out of 5. In the first half, Arsenal has not exceeded 1.5 goals in any of the last 5 matches, while Manchester City has done so in 4 out of 5. In the second half, Arsenal has exceeded 1.5 goals in 3 out of 5, Manchester City in 2 out of 5. Arsenal most frequently scores between the 46th and 60th minutes (33%) and 76th and 90th minutes (33%), while Manchester City scores most often between the 31st and 45th minutes (44%). Arsenal concedes evenly across four intervals, while Manchester City concedes most often between the 31st-45th, 46th-60th, and 76th-90th minutes (25% each). Given Manchester City's high scoring rate and Arsenal's steady attacking line, betting on over 2.5 goals seems logical at odds of 2.08.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Over the last 5 matches, Arsenal averages 6.4 corners, while Manchester City averages 9.8. For the frequency of over 9.5 corners, Arsenal has 3 out of 5, and Manchester City 4 out of 5. Among the available corner totals, the one closest to the average sum (16.2) is over 9.5: odds for over 9.5 are 1.99, and for under 9.5 - 1.73. Arsenal is the favorite for the corner outcome at odds of 1.88. High corner activity is expected, as both teams regularly deliver many, so betting on over 9.5 corners seems justified.