Prediction for match Aston Villa — Chelsea

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the Premier League on March 4th, Aston Villa will face Chelsea. According to the 1X2 odds, Chelsea is the favorite: Chelsea's win is priced at 2.51, Aston Villa's win at 2.85, and a draw at 3.76. The probability percentages are distributed as follows: Chelsea - 39.24%, Aston Villa - 34.56%, and draw - 26.20%. The lines also offer options for totals: over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.74, under 2.5 at 2.27, both teams to score - yes at 1.53, no at 2.37. Based on these figures, the match promises to be productive, but with some caution in estimates.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last five matches, Aston Villa has averaged 0.8 goals per game while conceding 1.4, with 53.6% possession. In terms of discipline - 1.8 yellow cards, 12 fouls, and 1.6 offsides per game. Chelsea, over the same period, scored 2.2 goals per match and conceded 1.2, with possession at 67%. They averaged 3.2 yellow cards, 10.8 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. In their last three matches, Aston Villa played as follows: 27.02 - Wolverhampton - Aston Villa - 2-0, 21.02 - Aston Villa - Leeds - 1-1, 14.02 - Aston Villa - Newcastle - 1-3. For Chelsea: 01.03 - Arsenal - Chelsea - 2-1, 21.02 - Chelsea - Burnley - 1-1, 13.02 - Hull City - Chelsea - 0-4. The last head-to-head meeting was on 27.12.2025: Chelsea - Aston Villa - 1-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a series of five matches, Aston Villa has an average total of 2.2 goals, while Chelsea has 3.4. Aston Villa scores 0.8 and concedes 1.4, while Chelsea scores 2.2 and concedes 1.2. For over 2.5 goals: Aston Villa has 1 out of 5, Chelsea 4 out of 5. In the first half, Aston Villa never had more than 1.5 goals, Chelsea had 2 out of 5. In the second half, both teams recorded more than 1.5 goals 2 times out of 5. By intervals: Aston Villa most often scores and concedes in the 76-90 minute segment (50% and 40% respectively), while Chelsea's most productive periods are 16-30 and 46-60 (33% each), and they most often concede in the 31-45 interval (36%). Given Chelsea's high productivity and regular goals from both sides, a bet on both teams to score at 1.53 seems logical - Chelsea has a stable over-profile, while Aston Villa regularly concedes but is also capable of scoring.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Aston Villa averages 5.8 corners per match, Chelsea - 6.2. In the last 5 meetings, both teams had a total of over 9.5 corners 3 times out of 5. Looking at the line, the total of over 9.5 corners is priced at 1.72, under 10.25 at 1.72. For the outcome on corners, Aston Villa is the favorite with odds of 1.85. Given the average values and the frequency of over 9.5 corners, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified, as both teams regularly deliver 6 or more corners per game.