Prediction for match Aston Villa — Newcastle

Aston Villa vs Newcastle Match Analysis

On February 14, 2026, Aston Villa will face Newcastle in the FA Cup. The odds for an Aston Villa victory are 2.20, while Newcastle's win is priced at 3.04, and a draw is at 3.52. In terms of probabilities: Aston Villa has a 42.58% chance of winning, Newcastle has 30.81%, and a draw is evaluated at 26.61%. This setup reflects a moderate advantage for Aston Villa, but Newcastle is also considered a serious contender.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Aston Villa's average stats are: possession - 54.6%, yellow cards - 1.2, fouls - 9.4, offsides - 0.8. Newcastle's stats show 43.4% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 10.8 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. Aston Villa's recent matches: 11.02.2026 - Aston Villa vs Brighton - 1-0, 07.02.2026 - Bournemouth vs Aston Villa - 1-1, 01.02.2026 - Aston Villa vs Brentford - 0-1. Newcastle's recent games: 10.02.2026 - Tottenham vs Newcastle - 1-2, 07.02.2026 - Newcastle vs Brentford - 2-3, 04.02.2026 - Manchester City vs Newcastle - 3-1. Their last head-to-head match was on 25.01.2026: Newcastle vs Aston Villa - 0-2.

How Many Goals Will Be Scored in the Aston Villa vs Newcastle Match

In terms of scoring, Aston Villa has an average total of 2.2 goals per game over their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.4 and conceding 0.8. Newcastle's average total is significantly higher at 3.8, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.4. For over 2.5 goals: Aston Villa has only 1 out of 5 matches over, while Newcastle has 4 out of 5 over. In the first half, Aston Villa had no matches over 1.5 goals, whereas Newcastle had 4 out of 5 over. In the second half, Aston Villa had 1 out of 5 over 1.5, and Newcastle had 3 out of 5 over. Goal intervals: Aston Villa often scores between 76-90 minutes (60%) and concedes between 16-30 and 31-45 minutes (33% each). Newcastle scores most frequently between 0-15 and 31-45 minutes (25% each) and concedes between 31-45 minutes (63%). Given Newcastle's high scoring rate, regular over 2.5 goals, and decent average total goals, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.64 seems justified.

Analysis of Corner Totals

For corners, Aston Villa averages 6.4 per match, while Newcastle averages 7.4. In their last five games, Aston Villa had 4 out of 5 matches with over 9.5 corners, and Newcastle had 3 out of 5. The total closest to the average (13.8) is 10.5: over 10.5 is priced at 1.95, under 10.5 at 1.80. Aston Villa is the favorite in corner outcomes with odds of 1.84. Expect active wing play, as both teams consistently deliver many corners, increasing the likelihood of the over total.