Prediction for match Atalanta — Roma, 03.01.2026

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In Serie A on January 3, 2026, Atalanta will face Roma. According to the 1X2 odds, Atalanta's win is priced at 2.35, a draw at 3.32, and Roma's victory at 3.46. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Atalanta - 41.89%, draw - 29.65%, Roma - 28.45%. Considering these figures, Atalanta is the favorite by probability, but the gap with Roma is not significant, and a draw also holds a considerable probability. For the main prediction, an interesting bet is on over 2.5 goals at 2.14, as both teams have shown a scoring profile in recent matches and overall averages.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Atalanta has an average possession of 57.4%, yellow cards - 1.2, fouls - 10.6, offsides - 1.6. Roma, over the same period, has possession of 53.8%, yellow cards - 2.4, fouls - 13.2, offsides - 2.4. Atalanta's last three matches: 28.12.2025 - Atalanta vs Inter - 0-1, 21.12.2025 - Genoa vs Atalanta - 0-1, 13.12.2025 - Atalanta vs Cagliari - 2-1. Roma's last three encounters: 29.12.2025 - Roma vs Genoa - 3-1, 20.12.2025 - Juventus vs Roma - 2-1, 15.12.2025 - Roma vs Como - 1-0. In their head-to-head match on 12.05.2025, Atalanta defeated Roma 2-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last 5 matches, both teams had over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 games. By halves, Atalanta had over 1.5 goals in the first half once and in the second half three times. Roma had over 1.5 goals in the first half twice and in the second half once. The average number of goals in matches for both teams is 2.4. Atalanta scores an average of 1.2 and concedes 1.2, while Roma scores 1.6 and concedes 0.8. Goal intervals: Atalanta most frequently scores between 76-90 minutes (29%) and concedes between 61-75 and 76-90 minutes (40% each). Roma scores most often between 31-45 minutes (38%) and concedes between 31-45 and 76-90 minutes (40% each). Both teams tend to have high-scoring finishes, strengthening the argument for over 2.5 goals. Overall, the recent match statistics and goal distribution by halves support a bet on a high-scoring game.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

Atalanta averages 5.2 corners in their last 5 matches, while Roma averages 4.2. Atalanta had over 9.5 total corners in 3 out of 5 matches, while Roma did not have any matches exceed 9.5. Among the odds for total corners, the line at 9.5 stands out: over 9.5 - 2.12, under 9.5 - 1.61. Atalanta is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.73. Considering the average sum of corners for both teams (9.4), a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified, especially given Atalanta's frequent overs. Additionally, a bet on Atalanta to win the corner count could be considered.