Prediction for match Atalanta — Fiorentina, 30.11.2025

Match Analysis: Atalanta vs Fiorentina

The Serie A clash between Atalanta and Fiorentina is set to take place on November 30, 2025. According to 1X2 odds, Atalanta is the favorite with odds of 1.77, indicating a 55.69% chance of winning. A draw is priced at 3.94 (25.02%), while Fiorentina's victory is valued at 5.11 with a probability of 19.29%. The odds reflect Atalanta's advantage, but a draw is also considered fairly likely by bookmakers. Expectations for goals are moderate: over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.94, under at 2.00. Both teams to score: yes - 1.80, no - 1.92. This suggests the match is not expected to be highly prolific, but Atalanta is given a slight edge in attacking potential.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Atalanta has averaged 56.8% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 11.2 fouls, and 2.6 offsides. Fiorentina holds 54.2% possession, with a noticeably higher rate of yellow cards at 3.2, 12.8 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. In their last three outings, Atalanta played as follows: 26.11 - Eintracht Frankfurt vs Atalanta 0-3, 22.11 - Napoli vs Atalanta 3-1, 09.11 - Atalanta vs Sassuolo 0-3. Over the same period, Fiorentina's results were: 27.11 - Fiorentina vs AEK Athens 0-1, 22.11 - Fiorentina vs Juventus 1-1, 09.11 - Genoa vs Fiorentina 2-2. In their last head-to-head on March 30, 2025, Fiorentina defeated Atalanta 1-0, with the total goals being under 2.5. Earlier matches between these opponents were more prolific: 15.09.2024 Atalanta vs Fiorentina 3-2 (over 2.5 hit), 02.06.2024 Atalanta vs Fiorentina 2-3 (over 2.5 hit), 24.04.2024 Atalanta vs Fiorentina 4-1 (over 2.5 hit).

Goals by Match Statistics

In their last five matches, Atalanta's games went over 2.5 goals 3 times, Fiorentina's 2 times. The first half over 1.5 occurred once for both teams, while the second half over 1.5 happened twice for each. Average goals: Atalanta scores 1.0 and concedes 1.4, Fiorentina scores 0.8 and concedes 1.4. By time intervals: Atalanta most frequently scores between minutes 31-45 (75%), Fiorentina between 46-60 (50%). In terms of goals conceded: Atalanta is most vulnerable between 46-60 and 61-75 minutes (33% each), while Fiorentina's weakest period is 16-30 minutes (50%). Overall, both teams do not show high scoring prowess, and Fiorentina averages less than 1 goal per game. Considering these data, betting on under 2.5 goals at 2.00 seems justified: both teams' average totals do not exceed 2.4, with under 2.5 hitting in 3 out of 5 for Fiorentina and 2 out of 5 for Atalanta, and low scoring is noted in the first halves.

Corner Totals Analysis

On average, Atalanta earns 4 corners per match, while Fiorentina earns 5.4. The frequency of over 9.5 corners hitting is 1 out of 5 for Atalanta, 3 out of 5 for Fiorentina. The line is set at 9.5 corners: over is priced at 2.16, under at 1.65. Based on averages, considering under 9.5 corners is more logical, as the combined average does not reach this figure, and Atalanta has only one instance of over 9.5 in five matches. Atalanta is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.39. Overall, a moderate number of corners is expected, without a significant skew towards a high total.