Prediction for match Atalanta — Genoa, 03.12.2025

Odds and Probabilities for the Match Outcome

Atalanta and Genoa will face off on December 3rd in the Coppa Italia. The odds for an Atalanta win are set at 1.57, a draw is at 4.30, and a Genoa victory is at 6.30. The probability percentages give Atalanta a 61.95% chance of winning, a 22.62% chance for a draw, and a 15.44% chance for a Genoa win. Atalanta is clearly the favorite according to both the odds and probabilities, with a significant difference in chances between the two teams reflected in these figures.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Atalanta has averaged 54.4% possession, 1.2 yellow cards, 12 fouls, and 2.4 offsides per game. Genoa, over the same period, has maintained 49% possession, received 2.4 yellow cards, committed 14.8 fouls, and had 2.6 offsides. In their last three matches, Atalanta defeated Fiorentina 2-0, thrashed Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0, and lost to Napoli 1-3. Genoa, in their last three outings, beat Verona 2-1, drew 3-3 with Cagliari, and settled for a 2-2 draw with Fiorentina. The last head-to-head match between these teams was on May 17, 2025, where Genoa lost to Atalanta 2-3.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Both teams have shown interesting scoring patterns. In the last five matches, Atalanta had 3 games with over 2.5 goals and 2 with under, while Genoa had 4 out of 5 games over 2.5 goals. The average total goals over 5 games for Atalanta is 2.6, and for Genoa, it's 3.6. In terms of scoring: Atalanta averages 1.4 goals, Genoa 1.8, with respective concessions of 1.2 and 1.8. By halves, Atalanta had only 1 out of 5 matches with over 1.5 goals in the first half, while Genoa had 3 out of 5. In the second half, Atalanta had 2 matches over 1.5, and Genoa 3 out of 5. For goal intervals: Atalanta most frequently scores between 31-45 minutes (60%), and Genoa between 46-60 minutes (44%). Atalanta is vulnerable in the 46-60 and 61-75 minute intervals (33% each), while Genoa concedes most in the 16-30 minute period (40%). Overall, both teams' scoring and total statistics suggest a high likelihood of a high-scoring match. A bet on over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.94 appears to be a solid choice.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

Atalanta averages 4 corners per game, while Genoa averages 4.2. In their last 5 matches, Atalanta had the total corners over 9.5 only once, whereas Genoa did so 3 times out of 5. The odds for total corners over 8.5 are 1.68, and under 8.5 are 1.69. Atalanta is favored to win the corner count at 1.25. The combined average for both teams' corners approaches 8.2, making a bet on over 8.5 corners logical in this matchup. Additionally, Genoa's frequent exceeding of 9.5 in recent matches adds interest to bets on higher corner totals.