Prediction for match Athletic — Ponte Preta

Match Analysis: Athletic vs Ponte Preta

In Brazil's Serie B on 22.03.2026, Athletic will face Ponte Preta. According to 1X2 odds, Athletic's victory is priced at 2.05, a draw at 3.20, and a win for Ponte Preta at 3.66. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Athletic - 45.44%, draw - 29.11%, Ponte Preta - 25.45%. Athletic is considered the most likely winner, although a draw is also a considerable possibility given its nearly one-third chance. Bookmakers offer over 2.5 goals at 2.38 and under 2.5 at 1.55, reflecting a cautious outlook on the match's goal tally.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Athletic has been strong: on 18.03.2026, they defeated Sport Recife 3-1, overcame Paysandu 2-1 on 23.11.2025, and drew 0-0 with Coritiba on 15.11.2025. In contrast, Ponte Preta has struggled in their last three matches, losing to Atletico Goianiense 0-1 (18.03.2026), to Sao Paulo 1-2 (15.02.2026), and Portuguesa 0-2 (07.02.2026). Over the past five matches, Athletic has averaged 48.6% possession, received 4.2 yellow cards, committed 16.8 fouls, and been caught offside 1.8 times per game. Ponte Preta averages 42.2% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 12.4 fouls, and 0.8 offsides. These stats indicate Athletic's more aggressive playstyle in defense and ball contention. Athletic shows consistency in their five-match streak, while Ponte Preta struggles to secure points.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In Athletic's last five matches, over 2.5 goals occurred four times, while under 2.5 happened once. For Ponte Preta, over 2.5 goals occurred twice, under 2.5 three times. Athletic averages 2.6 goals per game, while Ponte Preta averages 2.2. Athletic is ahead in scoring with 1.6 goals compared to Ponte Preta's 0.6. Athletic concedes 1 goal per game, while Ponte Preta concedes 1.6. In terms of half-time performance, Athletic saw over 1.5 goals in the second half three times out of five, but only once in the first half. Ponte Preta's matches were low-scoring in both halves, with over 1.5 goals occurring once in each half. Athletic's most frequent scoring interval is the 76-90 minute mark (43%), while Ponte Preta's are 31-45 and 46-60 minutes (29% each). Athletic is most vulnerable early (0-15, 33%) and late (76-90, 33%), while Ponte Preta is most vulnerable at the end of the first half (31-45, 50%). Considering Athletic's high scoring rate and Ponte Preta's weak attack, along with Ponte Preta's frequent under 2.5 outcomes, the optimal bet seems to be under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.55.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

Athletic averages 4.6 corners per game, while Ponte Preta averages 4.8, totaling 9.4. In their last five matches, both teams saw over 9.5 corners twice and under 9.5 three times. The line closest to the average total is 9.5: over 9.5 is priced at 1.68, under 9.5 at 2.05. Based on this data, betting on over 9.5 corners seems logical, given that both teams frequently deliver 4-5 corners per match. When considering the corner outcome, there is no clear favorite as the averages are very close. Overall, expect active wing play and a good number of set pieces, likely resulting in 9-11 corners during the game.