Prediction for match Atletico Madrid — Alaves, 18.01.2026

Match Analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Alaves

In a La Liga match on January 18, 2026, Atletico Madrid will face Alaves. The odds for an Atletico Madrid win are 1.38, a draw is at 5.12, and an Alaves victory is at 10.40. The probabilities are distributed as follows: 71.32% chance of success for Atletico Madrid, 19.22% for a draw, and 9.46% for an Alaves win. These numbers suggest Atletico Madrid is the favorite, with bookmakers expecting a strong performance from the Madrid team.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Atletico Madrid defeated Deportivo La Coruna 1-0 (13.01.2026), lost to Real Madrid 1-2 (08.01.2026), and drew with Real Sociedad 1-1 (04.01.2026). Alaves recently beat Rayo Vallecano 2-0 (14.01.2026), lost to Villarreal 1-3 (10.01.2026), and drew with Real Oviedo 1-1 (04.01.2026). Over a five-match span, Atletico Madrid's average ball possession is 53.6%, while Alaves' is 53.8%. The average number of yellow cards for Atletico Madrid is 0.4, compared to Alaves' 2.2. In terms of fouls: Atletico Madrid averages 11.8, and Alaves 13.2. Offsides: 2.2 for Atletico Madrid, 0.8 for Alaves. In their last head-to-head on August 30, 2025, the teams drew 1-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a five-match series, Atletico Madrid has an average total of 2.8 goals per game, while Alaves has 2.4. Atletico Madrid scores an average of 1.8 goals and concedes 1, whereas Alaves scores 1 and concedes 1.4. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 out of 5 matches for Atletico Madrid, and 2 out of 5 for Alaves. Over 1.5 goals occurred in 5 out of 5 matches for Atletico Madrid, and 4 out of 5 for Alaves. In the first half, over 1.5 goals were seen 2 times for Atletico Madrid, and 0 for Alaves. In the second half, over 1.5 goals occurred 3 times for Atletico Madrid, and 4 times for Alaves. Regarding goal intervals: Atletico Madrid most frequently scores between 46-60 and 76-90 minutes (40% each), while Alaves scores most frequently between 76-90 minutes (40%). Atletico Madrid concedes most often in four different intervals at 20% each, while Alaves concedes most often between 46-60 and 76-90 minutes (50% each). Based on this data, betting on over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93 seems logical: both teams have a tendency to score more in the second half, and Atletico Madrid consistently scores more than one goal per game.

Analysis of Corner Totals

The average number of corners for Atletico Madrid over 5 matches is 6.4, and for Alaves, it's 5.4. In a five-match series, over 9.5 corners occurred 4 times for Atletico Madrid, and 3 times for Alaves. The line closest to the sum of the averages (11.8) is set at 11.5: over 11.5 is at 2.87, under 11.5 is at 1.37. For corners, Atletico Madrid is favored with odds of 1.20. Based on this data, considering over 9.5 total corners or Atletico Madrid's individual corner total over 6.5 seems a reasonable choice, as both teams regularly earn many corners, and Atletico Madrid consistently exceeds 6 corners per match.