Prediction for match Atletico Madrid — Real Madrid

Match Analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

On January 8, 2026, Atletico Madrid will face Real Madrid in the Spanish Super Cup. According to the 1X2 odds, Real Madrid is favored with odds of 2.51, Atletico Madrid is at 2.97, and a draw is at 3.58. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Atletico Madrid win - 33.19%, draw - 27.54%, Real Madrid win - 39.27%. This clash always draws attention given the attacking potential of both teams and their current form. The odds for both teams to score are 1.53 for yes and 2.36 for no, further highlighting the expectations for a high-scoring game.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Atletico Madrid played as follows: January 4 - Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid 1-1, December 21 - Girona vs Atletico Madrid 0-3, December 17 - Atletico Baleares vs Atletico Madrid 2-3. Real Madrid's recent results are: January 4 - Real Madrid vs Real Betis 5-1, December 20 - Real Madrid vs Sevilla 2-0, December 17 - Talavera vs Real Madrid 2-3. In their last head-to-head on September 27, 2025, Atletico Madrid defeated Real Madrid 5-2. Over the last five matches, Atletico Madrid has an average possession of 50.8%, with 1.6 yellow cards, 13.6 fouls, and 2.8 offsides. Real Madrid has 55.8% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 11.4 fouls, and 0.8 offsides.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Both teams have a strong over-profile for goals. Over the last five matches, Atletico Madrid has an average total of 3.6 goals, while Real Madrid has 3.8. Atletico Madrid scores an average of 2.4 goals per game, and Real Madrid scores 2.6, with both conceding 1.2. In their last five matches, both teams have had over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 games. Atletico Madrid had over 1.5 goals in the first half 3 times and in the second half 4 times. Real Madrid had over 1.5 goals in the first half twice and in the second half 3 times. Atletico Madrid most frequently scores between the 76th and 90th minutes (38%), while Real Madrid also scores frequently late in the game (76-90, 45%). In terms of goals conceded, Atletico Madrid is most vulnerable between the 46th and 60th minutes (27%), while Real Madrid is most vulnerable between the 31st and 45th minutes (50%). Considering both teams' high scoring rates, frequent over 2.5 goals, and consistent scoring, a bet on both teams to score at 1.53 seems logical for this match.

Corner Totals Analysis

Over the last five matches, Atletico Madrid averages 5.4 corners, and Real Madrid averages 6.4, totaling 11.8. In their last five games, both teams have had over 9.5 corners in 4 out of 5 matches. For a corners total of 9.5, the outcomes are: over 9.5 at 1.79, under 9.5 at 1.92. Real Madrid is the favorite for corners with odds of 2.08. Based on the statistics, it makes sense to consider a bet on over 9.5 corners, given both teams' high averages and frequent occurrences of this total in recent matches.