Prediction for match Atletico Madrid — Union Saint-Gilloise, 04.11.2025

Match Analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Union Saint-Gilloise

The UEFA Champions League match between Atletico Madrid and Union Saint-Gilloise will take place on November 4, 2025. The odds are quite clear: Atletico Madrid to win at 1.25, a draw at 6.50, and Union Saint-Gilloise to win at 10.00. The probabilities are distributed as follows: 75.91% for the Spanish side to win, 14.60% for a draw, and 9.49% for the Belgian team to succeed. This disparity in odds and probabilities reflects a significant advantage for Atletico Madrid.

Team Results and Statistics

Atletico Madrid is showing solid form: over the last five matches, the team averaged 48% possession, 1.4 yellow cards, 11.4 fouls, and 2 offsides per game. Their last three matches: November 3, Atletico Madrid - Sevilla 3-0, October 27, Real Betis - Atletico Madrid 0-2, October 21, Arsenal - Atletico Madrid 4-0. Union Saint-Gilloise in the same period shows 43.8% possession, 1.8 yellow cards, 14.2 fouls, and 3 offsides. Their last three matches: November 1, Zulte Waregem - Union Saint-Gilloise 1-4, October 26, Union Saint-Gilloise - Sint-Truiden 2-0, October 21, Union Saint-Gilloise - Inter 0-4. There is no head-to-head data available, so the focus is solely on the recent form of the teams.

Goals Statistics

For the over 2.5 goals market, Atletico Madrid hit this in 2 out of 5, while Union Saint-Gilloise did so in 3 out of 5. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred in 1 out of 5 for the Spanish side and 3 out of 5 for the Belgians. In the second half, it was 2 out of 5 for Atletico and 4 out of 5 for Union. The average number of goals over the last 5 games: Atletico Madrid - 2.4, Union Saint-Gilloise - 3.2. Goals scored: 1.4 vs. 1.8, goals conceded - 1 vs. 1.4 respectively. Atletico Madrid most frequently scores between the 61st and 75th minute (67%), while Union Saint-Gilloise scores in the 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 minute intervals (29% each). Atletico concedes most often in the first 15 minutes (67%), while Union concedes between the 31st and 45th minutes (60%). This data suggests a moderately productive match, with Atletico's defense appearing quite reliable. Based on these insights, a bet that Atletico Madrid will not lose and the total goals will be under 3.5 seems logical.

Corner Bets

For corners, Atletico Madrid averages 5 per game, while Union Saint-Gilloise averages 3.4. In the last five matches, the total corners over 9.5 occurred once for Atletico and twice for Union. The odds for total corners over 9.5 are at 1.85, under 9.5 at 1.95. Atletico Madrid to win on corners is priced at 1.28. Based on the average corner activity and frequency of hitting the 9.5 total, a bet on under 9.5 corners seems justified.