Prediction for match Atletico Mineiro — Sao Paulo

Match Analysis: Atletico Mineiro vs Sao Paulo

In the Brazilian Serie A on 18.03.2026, Atletico Mineiro will face Sao Paulo. Bookmakers offer odds of 2.39 for an Atletico Mineiro win, 3.06 for a draw, and 3.37 for a Sao Paulo victory. According to probabilities: Atletico Mineiro - 40.16%, draw - 31.36%, Sao Paulo - 28.48%. The odds for the main outcomes are quite close, but Atletico Mineiro stands out as the favorite based on percentages and odds.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Atletico Mineiro lost to Vitoria 0-2, defeated Internacional 1-0, and lost to Gremio 1-2. Sao Paulo in their last three games beat RB Bragantino 2-1, overcame Chapecoense 2-0, and lost to Palmeiras 1-2. On average over 5 games, Atletico Mineiro has 50% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 10.4 fouls, and 2.2 offsides. Sao Paulo has 50.2% possession, 2.6 yellow cards, 13 fouls, and 0.8 offsides. Their last head-to-head match was on 24.08.2025: Sao Paulo - Atletico Mineiro 2-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a five-match series, Atletico Mineiro has an average total of 2.6 goals, while Sao Paulo has 2.4. In the last 5 games, Atletico Mineiro had over 2.5 goals twice, under three times. Sao Paulo had over 2.5 goals three times, under twice. In the first half, Atletico Mineiro had over 1.5 goals only once, Sao Paulo none. In the second half, Atletico Mineiro had two over 1.5, Sao Paulo four out of five. Atletico Mineiro scores most frequently between the 61st and 75th minute (33%), and concedes between the 76th and 90th (50%). Sao Paulo is most prolific between the 46th and 60th minute (50%), and also concedes in this interval (50%). Atletico Mineiro's average goals scored over 5 matches is 1, while Sao Paulo's is 1.6. For goals conceded: Atletico Mineiro - 1.6, Sao Paulo - 0.8. Considering Sao Paulo's strong second-half scoring and Atletico Mineiro's less reliable defense, betting on over 2.0 goals at 1.61 seems logical.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

Atletico Mineiro averages 6.6 corners per game, Sao Paulo - 5.6. In the last five matches, both teams had over 9.5 total corners four times. The total closest to the average sum (12.2) is 9.5, for which both outcomes are available: over 9.5 corners is at 1.87, under 9.5 also at 1.87. Atletico Mineiro is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.60. Given the high average corner count and frequent over 9.5 occurrences, betting on over 9.5 corners seems justified.