Prediction for match Atletico Paranaense — Chapecoense

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In Brazil's Serie A on April 12, Atletico Paranaense will face Chapecoense. According to the 1X2 odds, Atletico Paranaense is favored to win at 1.61, with a draw offered at 3.95, and a Chapecoense victory priced at 6.02. The probabilities are distributed as follows: 59.70% for an Atletico Paranaense win, 24.33% for a draw, and 15.97% for a Chapecoense win. These figures highlight a significant advantage for Atletico Paranaense, which is also supported by the recent match statistics of both teams. Additionally, the odds for over 2.5 goals are 1.98, while under 2.5 is 1.86, indicating some uncertainty in expected scoring.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Atletico Paranaense lost to Atletico Mineiro 1-2 (05.04.2026), were defeated by Bahia 0-3 (01.04.2026), and confidently beat Botafogo 4-1 (29.03.2026). They also secured victories against Coritiba 2-0 and Cruzeiro 2-1. Chapecoense, in their last three encounters, drew with Vitoria 1-1 (05.04.2026), suffered a heavy defeat to Atletico Mineiro 0-4 (02.04.2026), and lost to Internacional 0-2 (22.03.2026). They also had draws with Corinthians 0-0 and Gremio 1-1. On average over five matches, Atletico Paranaense has 49.2% possession, 1.4 yellow cards, 16.8 fouls, and 1.6 offsides per game. Chapecoense averages 45.2% possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 15.6 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. The last head-to-head meeting was on 17.09.2025, ending in a 3-2 win for Atletico Paranaense at Chapecoense's ground.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, Atletico Paranaense saw over 2.5 goals in 4 instances, and under in 1. For Chapecoense, over 2.5 goals occurred only once, with the under hitting 4 times. Atletico Paranaense's average goals in this period are 3.2, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.4 on average. Chapecoense's average total is 2.0, with 0.4 scored and 1.6 conceded. In the first half, Atletico Paranaense saw over 1.5 goals 3 times out of 5, and twice in the second half. Chapecoense had 2 instances of over 1.5 in the first half, and only 1 in the second. Atletico Paranaense most frequently scores in the 0-15 minute range (38%), while Chapecoense scores most often between 16-30 minutes (50%). Atletico Paranaense concedes goals equally in three intervals at 33% each: 31-45, 46-60, and 76-90 minutes. Chapecoense concedes most frequently in the 16-30, 31-45, and 76-90 minute intervals (33% each). These data suggest Atletico Paranaense's attacking advantage and Chapecoense's low scoring, making a bet on Both Teams to Score: No at 1.77 logical, given Chapecoense's extremely low scoring rate over 5 matches and only one instance of over 2.5 goals.

Analysis of Corners Totals

The average number of corners for Atletico Paranaense over the last five matches is 4.2, while Chapecoense averages 5.8. Atletico Paranaense's matches saw over 9.5 corners 3 times out of 5, and Chapecoense's matches saw it twice. Among the corner totals offered, there's a line at 10.5: over 10.5 is priced at 1.85, and under 10.5 is also at 1.85. This is close to the combined average corners for both teams (10). Chapecoense tends to take more corners, but Atletico Paranaense's numbers are also consistent. It makes sense to consider a bet on the corners total around 10.5, given that both teams often take at least 4-5 corners per game.