Prediction for match Atletico Paranaense — Corinthians

Odds and Probability of Match Outcome

In Brazil's Serie A on 19.02.2026, Atletico Paranaense will face Corinthians. According to the 1X2 odds, a win for Atletico Paranaense is priced at 2.61, a draw at 2.82, and a win for Corinthians at 3.29. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Atletico Paranaense - 36.78%, draw - 34.04%, Corinthians - 29.18%. These figures suggest a moderately tight match-up, with a slight edge towards Atletico Paranaense. For total goals, the closest to the average line are: over 2.0 at 1.73, over 2.25 at 2.03, over 2.5 at 2.40, and under 2.5 at 1.60. For both teams to score: yes is at 1.93, no at 1.78. The double chance on X2 is at 1.50, which barely meets the threshold for the main prediction.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Atletico Paranaense shows 47.8% ball possession, averages 1.6 yellow cards, 11.2 fouls, and 1.4 offsides per game. Corinthians holds the ball 60.2% of the time, receives 1.6 yellows, commits 7.8 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. In Atletico Paranaense's last three matches: 12.02.2026 - Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Santos, 28.01.2026 - Internacional 0-1 Atletico Paranaense, 23.11.2025 - Atletico Paranaense 1-0 America Mineiro. Corinthians played: 15.02.2026 - Sao Bernardo 0-1 Corinthians, 12.02.2026 - Corinthians 2-0 RB Bragantino, 08.02.2026 - Corinthians 0-1 Palmeiras. The last head-to-head was on 11.09.2025: Corinthians 2-0 Atletico Paranaense.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, both teams have an average total of 2.0 goals. Atletico Paranaense scores an average of 1.6, concedes 0.4; Corinthians scores 1.4, concedes 0.6. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 out of 5 matches for both teams, under 2.5 in 3 out of 5. In the first half, over 1.5 goals happened only once for each team, in the second half, Atletico Paranaense had 1 out of 5, Corinthians 2 out of 5. Atletico Paranaense distributes their goals evenly across all intervals, 17% in each 15-minute segment. Corinthians frequently scores between 46-60 and 61-75 minutes (29% each). In terms of goals conceded: Atletico Paranaense most often concedes late (76-90 minutes, 50%), Corinthians at the end of the first half (31-45 minutes, 40%). Overall, neither team is prone to high-scoring matches, and the balance of totals and average goals makes a bet on under 2.5 at 1.60 justified. However, for the main prediction, the double chance X2 at 1.50 is chosen, as Corinthians consistently picks up points and has decent scoring and conceding figures, and their five-match streak confirms competitiveness.

Analysis of Corner Totals

On average, Atletico Paranaense earns 4.8 corners per game, Corinthians 2. In the last five matches, over 9.5 corners occurred 4 times for Atletico Paranaense, 1 time for Corinthians. The closest total to the average in the line is 9.5: over 9.5 corners is at 1.60, under 9.5 at 2.11. Atletico Paranaense is the favorite on corners with odds of 1.73. Considering the statistics, it makes sense to consider a bet on over 9.5 corners, as Atletico Paranaense regularly earns a lot of corners, while their opponent is not particularly productive in this aspect.