Prediction for match Auxerre — Brest

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the Ligue 1 match on March 21, Auxerre will face Brest. According to the 1X2 odds, an Auxerre win is priced at 2.44, while both a draw and a Brest win are set at 3.30. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Auxerre - 40.34%, Draw - 29.83%, Brest - 29.83%. This indicates a moderate advantage for Auxerre, but Brest is not a clear underdog. The most likely outcome is an Auxerre victory, though the percentage difference between the teams is not significant, adding intrigue to the upcoming match. The odds for over 2.5 goals are at 2.32, and 'both teams to score: yes' is at 1.88, suggesting a restrained expectation of high scoring.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Auxerre has shown varied form: they lost to Marseille 0-1, drew with Strasbourg 0-0, drew with Lorient 2-2, suffered a heavy defeat to Rennes 0-3, and defeated Metz 3-1. Over the same period, Brest defeated Le Havre 2-0, Metz 1-0, Marseille 2-0, drew with Lille 1-1, and lost to Monaco 0-2. In their last head-to-head encounter on January 4, 2026, Brest won 2-0. In the five-match series, Auxerre had 40.2% possession, averaged 2.2 yellow cards, 13.2 fouls, and 1 offside. Brest had 36.2% possession, averaged 1.4 yellow cards, 11.2 fouls, and 0.6 offsides. These figures indicate that neither team tends to dominate possession, and Brest is more disciplined in terms of fouls and cards.

Goals Statistics

In their last five matches, Auxerre has an average total of 2.4 goals per game, scoring 1 and conceding 1.4. Brest's figures are lower, with an average of 1.8 goals per game, scoring 1.2 and conceding just 0.6. Auxerre has gone over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches, while Brest has done so in none, highlighting Brest's low-scoring profile. Over 1.5 goals in the first half occurred for Auxerre 2 times out of 5, and for Brest 1 out of 5. In the second half, both teams had only one occurrence of over 1.5 goals. Auxerre most frequently scores between the 16-30 and 76-90 minute marks (50% each), while Brest scores between the 16-30 and 61-75 minute marks (29% each). Auxerre most often concedes between the 16-30 minute mark (38%), while Brest concedes between the 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 minute marks (33% each). Considering Brest's low scoring, solid defense, and Auxerre's moderate attacking activity, a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.71 seems logical. This is supported by the fact that Brest has not gone over 2.5 goals in their last five games, and Auxerre only in 3 out of 5 cases.

Corners Analysis

In terms of average corners over 5 matches, Auxerre has 4.2 and Brest 3.4, totaling 7.6, which is close to the line of 7.5-8.5. Auxerre has gone over 9.5 corners in 2 out of 5 matches, and Brest in 3 out of 5. Among the available totals, 8.5 is closest to the average, with over 8.5 corners priced at 1.52, and under 8.5 at 2.30. Auxerre is favored for corners with odds of 1.68. Given both teams' average corner activity, a bet on over 8.5 corners seems justified. It's also worth noting that Auxerre has a slightly higher tendency for corners, as confirmed by their average in the series.