Prediction for match AZ Alkmaar — Jagiellonia, 18.12.2025

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

AZ Alkmaar and Jagiellonia will face off in the Conference League on December 18. According to the 1X2 odds, AZ Alkmaar's victory is priced at 1.59, a draw at 4.36, and a win for Jagiellonia at 5.77. The probability of an AZ Alkmaar win is 60.97%, a draw is 22.23%, and Jagiellonia's success is 16.80%. This makes AZ Alkmaar a clear favorite, with a significant percentage difference between the teams. While a draw is possible, it is rated much lower than a home win.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, AZ Alkmaar recorded the following results: December 11 - FC Drita 0-3 AZ Alkmaar, December 7 - AZ Alkmaar 2-2 Go Ahead Eagles, December 3 - Zwolle 1-3 AZ Alkmaar. Jagiellonia's last three games were: December 14 - Motor Lublin 1-1 Jagiellonia, December 11 - Jagiellonia 1-2 Rayo Vallecano, December 7 - Nieciecza 2-1 Jagiellonia. Looking at five-match averages, AZ Alkmaar has 58.8% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 9.6 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. Jagiellonia has 58% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 12.4 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. Both teams show high possession, but Jagiellonia commits more fouls and receives slightly fewer warnings. Recent matches show AZ Alkmaar frequently gaining points, while Jagiellonia struggles in attack.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, AZ Alkmaar had over 2.5 goals in 3 games and under in 2. Jagiellonia had over 2.5 in 2 games and under in 3. On average, AZ Alkmaar scores 2.8 goals per game, Jagiellonia 1.8. AZ Alkmaar scores 2, concedes 0.8; Jagiellonia scores 0.8, concedes 1. AZ Alkmaar exceeded 1.5 goals in the first half only once in 5 matches, while Jagiellonia did so in 3 of 5. In the second half, AZ Alkmaar had over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5, Jagiellonia in none. The most frequent scoring interval for AZ Alkmaar is 31-45 minutes (50%), and for Jagiellonia, the same interval (40%). AZ Alkmaar often concedes late (76-90 minutes, 56%), while Jagiellonia concedes towards the end of the first half (31-45 minutes, 50%). Overall, the goal stats suggest AZ Alkmaar's attacking advantage and defensive stability, whereas Jagiellonia faces scoring issues and frequent concessions in certain intervals. A bet on AZ Alkmaar's individual total over 1.5 at 1.56 seems optimal: the team regularly scores, averaging 2 goals, while Jagiellonia has been conceding consistently.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

AZ Alkmaar averages 6.6 corners per match, Jagiellonia 6.4. In the last five games, over 9.5 corners occurred 3 times for AZ Alkmaar and 4 times for Jagiellonia. The line for total corners over 9.5 is at 1.86, under 9.5 at 1.82. AZ Alkmaar is favored in corners with odds of 1.27. In this scenario, an active flank game and a high number of corners are expected, as both teams can create chances. A bet on over 9.5 total corners seems justified, given the average figures and recent match trends.