Prediction for match AZ Alkmaar — NEC Nijmegen, 31.01.2026

Match Analysis: AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen

On January 31, AZ Alkmaar will face NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie. According to the 1X2 odds, AZ Alkmaar's victory is priced at 1.79, a draw at 4.17, and NEC Nijmegen's win at 4.10. In terms of probability, AZ Alkmaar has a 53.60% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen has 23.40%, and a draw is at 23.01%. These figures highlight AZ Alkmaar as the team with the best chance to win this match, but NEC Nijmegen is also capable of putting up a fight. In the goal totals market, over 2.5 goals is at 1.39, and over 2.75 is at 1.48, indicating a high expected scoring game.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, AZ Alkmaar played as follows: January 25 - Telstar 0-1 AZ Alkmaar, January 21 - AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Excelsior, January 17 - Zwolle 3-1 AZ Alkmaar. During the same period, NEC Nijmegen's results were: January 24 - NEC Nijmegen 2-1 Zwolle, January 20 - De Treffers 1-2 NEC Nijmegen, January 17 - NAC Breda 3-4 NEC Nijmegen. On average over the last five games, AZ Alkmaar has 50.2% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 11.6 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. NEC Nijmegen has 55.6% possession, 1.4 yellow cards, 10 fouls, and 2 offsides. In their last head-to-head meeting on September 28, 2025, NEC Nijmegen was stronger, winning 2-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five games, AZ Alkmaar's matches had over 2.5 goals twice, while NEC Nijmegen's had over 2.5 goals in all five. AZ Alkmaar averages 2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, whereas NEC Nijmegen scores 2.6 and concedes 1.6. The average total goals per match: AZ Alkmaar - 2.8, NEC Nijmegen - 4.2. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred twice for AZ Alkmaar and four out of five times for NEC Nijmegen. In the second half, both teams had over 1.5 goals three times. AZ Alkmaar scores most frequently in the 0-15 and 76-90 minute intervals (27% each), while NEC Nijmegen scores most in the 46-60 minute interval (33%). AZ Alkmaar concedes most in the final minutes (76-90, 67%), and NEC Nijmegen in the opening minutes (0-15, 33%). These stats confirm the high attacking potential of both teams, especially NEC Nijmegen, with over 2.5 goals in all their last five matches. Thus, a bet on over 2.75 goals at 1.48 seems logical, given that both teams regularly score and concede, with average goals exceeding 2.5.

Corner Totals Analysis

AZ Alkmaar averages 4.6 corners per match, and NEC Nijmegen averages 5.6. For over 9.5 corners: AZ Alkmaar had it once in five, NEC Nijmegen twice. The line for over 9.5 corners is priced at 1.65, and under 9.5 at 2.08. Based on averages, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified, as both teams collectively achieve around 10.2 corners per game. AZ Alkmaar is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.51. Overall, we can expect an active game in terms of corners, especially from NEC Nijmegen, who consistently delivers over 5 per match.