Prediction for match Azerbaijan — France, 16.11.2025

Match Analysis: Azerbaijan vs France

Azerbaijan takes on France in the European World Cup Qualifiers on November 16, 2025. France is the clear favorite with an 84.38% chance of winning, while the probability of a draw is 11.12% and an Azerbaijan victory is 4.50%. The odds for the main outcomes are: France to win at 1.12, draw at 8.50, and Azerbaijan to win at 21.00. France's dominance is evident in all key parameters, leaving Azerbaijan with little hope according to the bookmakers.

Team Form and Secondary Statistics

In their last five matches, Azerbaijan has had a low ball possession rate of 31.8%, averaging 2.4 yellow cards, 11.8 fouls, and 1.8 offsides per game. France, on the other hand, boasts a much higher possession rate of 67.4%, with 1.2 yellow cards, 9.8 fouls, and 0.8 offsides. In their recent matches, Azerbaijan lost 0-2 to Iceland (November 13, 2025), 1-2 to Ukraine (October 13, 2025), and 0-3 to France (October 10, 2025). During the same period, France defeated Ukraine 4-0 (November 13, 2025), drew 2-2 with Iceland (October 13, 2025), and beat Azerbaijan 3-0 (October 10, 2025). In their head-to-head on October 10, 2025, France won 3-0, with the total goals over 2.5 bet coming through.

How Many Goals Can We Expect?

In terms of goal statistics, Azerbaijan has seen over 2.5 goals in three of their last five matches, staying under in the other two. France has had four out of five matches end with three or more goals. In the first half, Azerbaijan played over 1.5 goals twice and under three times; in the second half, they went over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 matches. France surpassed the 1.5 goal mark only once in the first half but did so in the second half 3 out of 5 times. On average, Azerbaijan's matches see 3.0 goals, scoring 0.4 and conceding 2.6, while France's matches average 3.2 goals, scoring 2.6 and conceding 0.6. Azerbaijan most frequently scores between the 61st and 75th minutes (45%) and concedes between the 31st and 45th minutes (50%). France often scores late in the game, between the 76th and 90th minutes (36%), and concedes between the 61st and 75th minutes (40%). This distribution of goals and the significant difference in average performance suggest a clear advantage for France and a low likelihood of a goal from Azerbaijan. Given this scenario, betting on both teams not to score seems reasonable, with odds at 1.62, considering Azerbaijan's weak attack and France's solid defense.

Corner Totals Analysis

Regarding corners, Azerbaijan averages 2.4 per match over their last five games, while France averages 6.6. The frequency of over 9.5 corners is 3 out of 5 for Azerbaijan and 1 out of 5 for France. The line offers a total corners bet: over 9.5 at 1.83, under 9.5 also at 1.83. France is favored in the corners market with odds of 1.05. Given the difference in wing play activity and set pieces, betting on France's individual corner total over 7.5 (1.83) appears justified, though the overall total over 9.5 is also achievable considering the visitors' attacking style and high possession rate.