Prediction for match Bahia — Sport Recife, 04.12.2025

Odds and Probability Percentages

Bahia and Sport Recife will face off on December 3, 2025, in Brazil's Serie A. Bahia is the clear favorite according to the odds: their victory is set at 1.20, a draw is priced at 7.13, and a win for Sport Recife is valued at 15.50. In terms of outcome probabilities, Bahia has an 80.27% chance, a draw is at 13.51%, and Sport Recife holds a 6.21% chance. This setup reflects analysts' confidence in Bahia's superiority over their opponent. The goal total options also indicate a shift towards a high-scoring game: Over 2.75 is at 1.49, Over 3.0 is at 1.63, and Over 3.25 is at 1.85, suggesting a tendency for a lot of goals in this matchup.

Team Recent Match Overview

In their last five matches, Bahia averages 56.8% possession, receives 2 yellow cards, commits 10.8 fouls, and is caught offside 1.6 times per game. Sport Recife, over the same period, averages 41% possession, gets 3 cautions, commits 11.6 fouls, and is caught offside 1.4 times. In their last three matches, Bahia played as follows: November 28 - Juventude vs Bahia 1-1, November 23 - Bahia vs Vasco da Gama 1-0, November 20 - Bahia vs Fortaleza 2-3. Sport Recife's last three games: November 29 - Santos vs Sport Recife 3-0, November 23 - Sport Recife vs Vitoria 1-3, November 18 - Botafogo vs Sport Recife 3-2. In the head-to-head on August 2, 2025, the teams drew 0-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In Bahia's last five matches, the average total goals per game is 3, with the team scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.8 per game. For Sport Recife, this figure is even higher at 4.8, with a similar attacking output of 1.2 but conceding significantly more at 3.6. Bahia had 3 out of 5 matches go over 2.5 goals, while Sport Recife had 5 out of 5. In the first half, Bahia went over 1.5 goals twice out of five, while Sport Recife did so four times out of five. In the second half, both teams had 3 out of 5 matches go over 1.5 goals. Bahia most frequently scores between the 61st and 75th minute (44%), while Sport Recife scores most between the 16th and 30th minute (40%). Bahia concedes most between the 16th and 30th minute (33%), while Sport Recife concedes most between the 61st and 75th minute (36%). Given the high totals, over 2.5 goals in both teams' matches, and especially Sport Recife's defensive instability, betting on over 2.75 goals at 1.49 seems logical, but this odds is below the acceptable threshold. A more suitable choice is over 3.0 goals at 1.63, supported by both teams' over 2.5 totals and the overall scoring in recent matches.

Corner Totals Analysis

Bahia averages 6.8 corners over their last five games, while Sport Recife averages 4.8. The over 9.5 corners hit in 5 out of 5 games for Bahia and 4 out of 5 for Sport Recife. The line closest to the average sum is 11, with both odds available: over 11 corners at 2.41, under 11 at 1.50. Bahia is favored in corners with odds of 1.18. Considering the consistent over 9.5 corners and high averages for both teams, betting on over 11 corners seems justified for risk-oriented players, but a more reliable option remains over 9.5 corners, which hit in 9 out of the last 10 matches for both sides.