Prediction for match Bahia — Vasco da Gama, 23.11.2025

Match Analysis: Bahia vs Vasco da Gama

In Brazil's Serie A on November 23rd, Bahia will face Vasco da Gama. The odds for a Bahia win are 1.74, a draw is 3.78, and a Vasco da Gama victory is 4.93. In terms of probabilities: Bahia is given a 55.15% chance, a draw 25.39%, and Vasco da Gama 19.46%. The odds for over 2.5 goals are 1.92, and under 2.5 goals are also 1.92. Based on these odds, Bahia is considered the favorite in this matchup.

Team Results and Statistics

Bahia, over a five-match span, averages 57% possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 10 fouls, and 1.2 offsides per game. Vasco da Gama holds 55.4% possession, records 2 yellow cards, 12.4 fouls, and 0.4 offsides. In their last three matches, Bahia played as follows: November 20th, Bahia 2-3 Fortaleza, November 8th, Internacional 2-2 Bahia, November 5th, Atletico Mineiro 3-0 Bahia. Vasco da Gama's recent three matches were: November 8th, Vasco da Gama 1-3 Juventude, November 5th, Botafogo 3-0 Vasco da Gama, November 2nd, Vasco da Gama 0-2 Sao Paulo. In their head-to-head on September 24, 2025, Vasco da Gama defeated Bahia 3-1, with over 2.5 goals occurring.

Goals Statistics

In the last five matches, Bahia played over 2.5 goals four times, and Vasco da Gama three times. On average, Bahia has 3.4 goals per game, while Vasco da Gama has 2.8. In the first half, Bahia surpassed 1.5 goals twice out of five, and Vasco da Gama once. In the second halves, Bahia achieved over 1.5 goals in four matches, and Vasco da Gama in two. Both Bahia and Vasco da Gama average 1.2 goals scored, with Bahia conceding 2.2 and Vasco da Gama 1.6. Bahia most frequently scores between the 61st-75th minute (36%), while Vasco da Gama scores between the 31st-45th minute (33%). Bahia is most vulnerable to conceding between the 16th-30th minute (33%), whereas Vasco da Gama has two critical periods: 31st-45th (38%) and 76th-90th (38%). Considering Bahia's high scoring in recent matches and both teams regularly surpassing the over 2.5 goals mark, betting on over 2.5 goals seems justified.

Corners Statistics

Bahia averages 5.2 corners, and Vasco da Gama 4 per match. Over a five-match period, Bahia surpassed the 9.5 corners total three times, and Vasco da Gama twice. The odds for over 8.5 corners are 1.51, and under 8.5 corners are 2.40. A Bahia victory in corners is rated at 1.45. Considering Bahia's activity and Vasco da Gama's consistent stats, a bet on over 8.5 corners or Bahia to win in corners seems logical.