Prediction for match Bahia — Vitoria

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

Bahia and Vitoria will face off on March 11, 2026, in Brazil's Serie A. Bahia is considered the favorite: odds for a Bahia win are 1.76, a draw is 3.70, and a Vitoria win is 4.93. The probabilities for the outcomes are distributed as follows: Bahia - 54.57%, draw - 25.96%, Vitoria - 19.48%. This setup reflects Bahia's advantage according to bookmakers' expectations and probabilities. Overall, the odds for a Bahia victory are significantly lower than for other outcomes, which is also confirmed by the percentages.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last five matches, Bahia has shown stable ball possession at 51.2%, averages 4 yellow cards, 11.6 fouls, and 2.6 offsides per game. Vitoria, over the same period, holds possession 41.4% of the time, gets 2.8 yellow cards, commits 13.8 fouls, and records 1.8 offsides. Bahia's last three results: 25.02.2026 - Bahia - O'Higgins - 5-5, 18.02.2026 - O'Higgins - Bahia - 1-0, 12.02.2026 - Vasco da Gama - Bahia - 0-1. Vitoria played as follows: 11.02.2026 - Vitoria - Flamengo - 1-2, 05.02.2026 - Palmeiras - Vitoria - 5-1, 28.01.2026 - Vitoria - Remo - 2-0. The last head-to-head meeting was on 17.10.2025: Vitoria - Bahia - 2-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

On average, Bahia scores 2 goals per match in their last five-game series, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.8. Vitoria averages 3.2 goals, scoring 1 and conceding 2.2. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of Bahia's last 5 matches and in 3 of Vitoria's. For the first half, over 1.5 goals were seen 2 times for Bahia and 3 times for Vitoria. In the second half, Bahia did not see over 1.5 goals, while Vitoria did in 4 out of 5. Bahia most often scores between 0-15 minutes (50%), while Vitoria scores most frequently between 61-75 minutes (29%). Bahia concedes most often between 16-45 minutes (40% in each of the two intervals), while Vitoria concedes evenly at 33% in three different periods: 0-15, 31-45, and 46-60 minutes. Given the average scoring of both teams and Vitoria's frequent over 2.5 goals, a bet on over 2.5 goals seems justified. The odds for over 2.5 goals are 1.86.

Analysis of Corner Totals

In their last five matches, both Bahia and Vitoria average 5.2 corners. For over 9.5 corners, Bahia had 3 out of 5 matches, while Vitoria had 2 out of 5. The line for the match features a corner total of 9.5 - over is given at 1.93, under at 1.82. In corner outcomes, Bahia is the favorite with odds of 1.52. Considering both teams' average performances and frequency of outcomes, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems logical. Additionally, Bahia consistently delivers at least 5 corners per game, as confirmed by the average.