Prediction for match Barcelona — Real Madrid

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

Barcelona and Real Madrid will face off in the Spanish Super Cup on January 11, 2026. The odds for a Barcelona victory are set at 2.03, for Real Madrid's success at 3.55, and a draw is priced at 4.16. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Barcelona - 48.55%, Real Madrid - 27.76%, draw - 23.69%. Barcelona is considered the favorite, but the gap in chances isn't significant, highlighting the status of this clash between two top teams. The options for totals and individual performances are quite varied, reflecting the attacking potential of both sides.

Review of the Teams' Recent Matches

In their last five matches, Barcelona achieved the following results: January 7 - Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao 5-0, January 3 - Espanyol vs Barcelona 0-2, December 21 - Villarreal vs Barcelona 0-2. During the same period, Real Madrid played as follows: January 8 - Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid 1-2, January 4 - Real Madrid vs Real Betis 5-1, December 20 - Real Madrid vs Sevilla 2-0. In their last head-to-head match on October 26, 2025, Real Madrid defeated Barcelona 2-1. Additional stats over the last 5 matches: Barcelona had 76.8% possession, 0.6 yellow cards, 9 fouls, and 1.8 offsides; Real Madrid had 54.4% possession, 1.2 yellow cards, 10 fouls, and 0.8 offsides. Barcelona shows high ball control and discipline, while Real Madrid commits fouls and receives cautions more often.

How Many Goals to Expect?

On average over the last 5 matches, Barcelona scores 2.6 goals and concedes 0.2, while Real Madrid scores 2.8 and concedes 1. In terms of totals over 2.5 goals, Barcelona surpassed it 2 times out of 5, and Real Madrid 4 out of 5. In the first half, the total over 1.5 was recorded only once for both teams, while in the second half, Barcelona played 3 out of 5 over 1.5, and Real Madrid 4 out of 5. On average per match, Barcelona has 2.8 goals, and Real Madrid 3.8. By time intervals: Barcelona most often scores between the 46th and 60th minute (33%), Real Madrid towards the end, from the 76th to 90th minute (45%). Barcelona most often concedes in the last 15 minutes (40%), while Real Madrid concedes 25% in the endings of both halves. The combined attacking profile of both teams and the frequency of totals being surpassed in the second half suggest betting on over 3.5 goals, which is priced at 1.95. This seems justified given the scoring nature and frequent goals in the second half.

Corner Bets

In their last five matches, Barcelona averages 8.2 corners, and Real Madrid 6. For totals over 9.5 corners: Barcelona surpassed it 4 out of 5 times, and Real Madrid 5 out of 5. Among the available totals, the closest to the average corners sum (14.2) is the 10.5 line: over 10.5 corners - 1.98, under 10.5 - 1.74. For the outcome on corners, Barcelona is the favorite with odds of 1.58. Given the high average figures and frequent surpassing of totals for over, it's logical to expect at least 11 corners in this clash, and Barcelona seems preferable in terms of flank activity.