Prediction for match Bayer Leverkusen — St. Pauli, 03.02.2026

Odds and Probability Percentages

In the DFB Pokal on February 3, 2026, Bayer Leverkusen will face St. Pauli. Bayer is favored with odds of 1.58 for a win, a draw is at 4.60, and a St. Pauli victory is at 6.13. The probability percentages are distributed as follows: Bayer - 62.45%, draw - 21.45%, St. Pauli - 16.10%. Bayer is highlighted as the favorite, which is also reflected in the probability distribution for the outcomes.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last five matches, Bayer has an average possession of 61.8%, makes 5 corners, receives 1 yellow card, commits 7.8 fouls, and has 1.2 offsides per game. St. Pauli, in the same period, has 44.2% possession, earns 4.6 corners, 1 yellow card, 10.8 fouls, and 2 offsides. In their last three games, Bayer defeated Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 (31.01.2026), thrashed Villarreal 3-0 (28.01.2026), and beat Werder 1-0 (24.01.2026). St. Pauli lost to Augsburg 1-2 (31.01.2026), drew with RB Leipzig 1-1 (27.01.2026), and had a goalless draw with Hamburg 0-0 (23.01.2026). The last head-to-head match was on September 27, 2025, with Bayer winning 2-1 at St. Pauli's ground.

How Many Goals in Bayer vs. St. Pauli Match

In a five-match series, Bayer averages 2.2 goals per match, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.8 per game. St. Pauli averages 2.6 goals, scoring 1 and conceding 1.6. For over 2.5 goals: Bayer had 2 out of 5 matches over, St. Pauli 3 out of 5. In the first half, Bayer had 3 out of 5 games over 1.5 goals, St. Pauli 2 out of 5. In the second half, Bayer had only 1 out of 5 matches over 1.5 goals, St. Pauli 2 out of 5. Bayer most frequently scores in the 0-15 and 31-45 minute intervals (38% each), St. Pauli scores late (76-90, 38%). Bayer concedes most often in the 16-30, 31-45, and 76-90 minute intervals (33% each), St. Pauli in the 61-75 (60%). The logical choice seems to be over 2.5 goals at 1.75: both teams have average scoring stats, St. Pauli had three of their last five matches with three or more goals, Bayer two. The activity intervals of both teams and their tendency for high-scoring ends also support the over bet.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Bayer averages 5 corners per match, St. Pauli 4.6. In the last five matches, both teams had 3 out of 5 cases where the total corners exceeded 9.5. Among the odds for total corners is a line at 9.5: over 9.5 is at 2.01, under 9.5 at 1.80. Based on these figures, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified: both teams regularly take 5 or more corners, and the frequency of this total being exceeded in the last five games is 3 times for both. It's also worth noting that Bayer and St. Pauli are not prone to a large number of cards: in the last five matches, there were never more than four warnings.