Prediction for match Bayer Leverkusen — Mainz 05

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Mainz 05 on 28.02.2026, bookmakers favor Bayer Leverkusen. A win for Bayer is priced at 1.75, a draw at 4.16, and a win for Mainz 05 at 4.92. Looking at the outcome probabilities, Bayer has a 56.29% chance of winning, a draw is at 23.68%, and Mainz 05 has a 20.02% chance. This setup confirms Bayer's status as the favorite, especially considering their recent head-to-head record where Bayer consistently picked up points. The betting lines also offer options for totals and both teams to score, but Bayer stands out as the more confident choice according to the main odds.

Team Results and Statistics

In terms of additional metrics, Bayer showcases a high ball possession percentage of 59.6%, receives an average of 1 yellow card, commits 7.4 fouls, and records 1.6 offsides per match. Mainz 05 lags in ball control (43.8%) but commits more fouls (10.4) and receives 2.6 yellow cards as well as 2.4 offsides. In their last three matches, Bayer drew 0-0 with Olympiacos (24.02.2026), lost 0-1 to Union Berlin (21.02.2026), and beat Olympiacos 2-0 (18.02.2026). Mainz 05 drew 1-1 with Hamburg (20.02.2026), lost 0-4 to Borussia Dortmund (13.02.2026), and won 2-0 against Augsburg (07.02.2026). In their last head-to-head on 18.10.2025, Mainz 05 lost 3-4 to Bayer.

How Many Goals in Bayer vs Mainz 05 Match

In the last five games, Bayer has an average match goal count of 1.8, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.4 per game. Mainz 05 shows higher scoring with an average of 3 goals per match, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4. Bayer has only 1 out of 5 games going over 2.5 total goals, while Mainz 05 has 3 out of 5. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred twice for Bayer and three times for Mainz 05. In the second half, Bayer had 2 over 1.5 goals, Mainz 05 had 1. Bayer most frequently scores in the first 15 minutes (50%), while Mainz 05 spreads their scoring across 0-15, 31-45, and 76-90 minutes (each 25%). For goals conceded, Bayer spreads them across three intervals (31-45, 46-60, 61-75 - each 33%), while Mainz 05 concedes in four different intervals (each 25%). Overall, Bayer appears more defensively sound, and Mainz 05 tends to play more openly. However, the average total goals and frequency of over 2.5 goals suggest a lack of confidence in high scoring, especially from Bayer. The optimal choice seems to be a bet on under 3.0 total goals at 1.70, considering Bayer's low scoring in recent matches and Mainz 05's inconsistency.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Bayer averages 4.4 corners per game, Mainz 05 averages 6.6. Over the last five matches, only 1 out of 5 for Bayer went over 9.5 corners, while Mainz 05 had 2 out of 5. Among the available corner totals, there's a line at 9.5: over 9.5 is priced at 1.79, under 9.5 at 1.96. For corners outcome, Bayer is favored at 1.46. Considering both teams' averages (11 corners in total per match), a bet on over 9.5 corners seems logical, but the frequency in recent matches isn't very high. Also, individual stats show Bayer consistently delivers around 4-5 corners, while Mainz 05 often exceeds 6. In this situation, betting on over 9.5 corners could be justified for those interested in statistical markets.