Prediction for match Benfica — Bayer Leverkusen

Match Odds and Probability Percentages

On November 5th, in the UEFA Champions League, Benfica will face Bayer Leverkusen. The odds for the outcomes are: a win for Benfica at 2.05, a draw and a win for Bayer both at 3.50. The probabilities are distributed as follows: 46.05% for a Benfica win, 26.97% for a draw, and the same for Bayer. Thus, Benfica is slightly favored, but there isn't a significant gap between the teams. For total goals: over 2.5 is at 1.73, under 2.5 at 2.10. Both teams to score - yes is at 1.57, no at 2.25. The double chance for Bayer (draw or win) is priced at 1.73. An interesting market is the total goals in the second half over 1.5 at 1.83, which stands out among related markets.

Team Form and Secondary Statistics

Over their last five matches, Benfica has an average possession of 55.8%, 2.2 yellow cards, 9.4 fouls, and 1 offside per game. Bayer has 52.2% possession, 2 yellow cards, 8.6 fouls, and 1.8 offsides per game. In their last three matches, Benfica defeated Vitória Guimarães 3-0 (01.11), thrashed Arouca 5-0 (25.10), and lost to Newcastle 0-3 (21.10). Bayer's recent results include a 0-3 loss to Bayern (01.11), a 4-2 win over Paderborn 07 (29.10), and a 2-0 victory against Freiburg (26.10). In their head-to-head on 09.12.2014, Benfica and Bayer ended 0-0, with under 2.5 goals. The earlier meeting on 01.10.2014 ended in a 3-1 win for Bayer, but the current analysis focuses on the latest performances of both teams.

Goals Statistics

In their last five matches, Benfica averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. Bayer is more prolific in attack with 2.4 goals but concedes more with 3 goals per game. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 out of 5 matches for Benfica and 4 times for Bayer. For over 1.5 goals in the first half, Benfica managed it once, Bayer three times. In the second half, both teams recorded over 1.5 goals three times. Regarding goal intervals, Benfica frequently scores between 31-45 (25%) and 76-90 (25%) minutes, while Bayer scores most often between 31-45 (33%). For goals conceded, Benfica's most vulnerable period is 76-90 (40%), and Bayer's is 31-45 (33%). The average total goals are 2.6 for Benfica and 5.4 for Bayer, reflecting a focus on scoring. In this matchup, a bet on both teams to score: yes at 1.57 looks promising, as both teams consistently find the net, with both averaging over 1 goal scored and frequent occurrences of over 2.5 totals supporting this direction.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Benfica averages 6 corners per match over five games, while Bayer averages 3.6. The over 9.5 corners total occurred twice for each team in their last five games. The odds for over 9.5 corners are 2.00, and under is 1.80. Benfica is favored to win the corner count with odds of 1.80. Considering the average figures, Benfica delivers almost twice as many corners as Bayer. Given this, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified, as well as considering Benfica's success in corners given the difference in average deliveries. The frequency of over 9.5 corners doesn't dominate, but with both teams' attacking styles, increased activity in this area is possible.