Prediction for match Benfica — Casa Pia, 09.11.2025

Odds and Probabilities for Match Outcomes

In the Portuguese Primeira Liga on November 9, Benfica will face Casa Pia. According to the bookmakers, Benfica is the overwhelming favorite: the odds for a home win are 1.17, a draw is priced at 7.50, and a victory for Casa Pia is at 13.00. The probabilities for the main outcomes are distributed as follows: 80.26% for a Benfica win, 12.52% for a draw, and 7.22% for a Casa Pia win. This distribution confirms Benfica's status as the favorite in this matchup. Meanwhile, the high odds for a draw indicate a low probability of such an outcome according to analysts.

Team Results and Statistics

Benfica has shown strong performance in their last five matches, controlling possession for an average of 56.6% of the time, committing 2.4 yellow cards, 9.6 fouls, and 1 offside per match. Casa Pia has 49.4% possession, with 2.8 yellows, 16.6 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. In their last three matches, Benfica played as follows: 11/05/2025 - Benfica vs Bayer 0-1, 11/01/2025 - Vitória Guimarães vs Benfica 0-3, 10/25/2025 - Benfica vs Arouca 5-0. Casa Pia's last three games were: 11/01/2025 - Casa Pia vs Estrela 3-5, 10/26/2025 - Braga vs Casa Pia 4-0, 10/03/2025 - Casa Pia vs Estoril 2-2. In their last head-to-head on 01/25/2025, Casa Pia defeated Benfica 3-1, with the total over 2.5 goals being surpassed. Matches between these opponents often turn out to be high-scoring, as seen from past results.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Benfica played over 2.5 goals three times and under twice. Casa Pia went over 2.5 goals four times and under only once. In the first half, Benfica had just one match with two or more goals, while Casa Pia had four out of five. In the second half, both teams had three matches with two or more goals. Benfica's average goals per game is 2.8, while Casa Pia's is 4.2, with Benfica scoring an average of 2 and Casa Pia 1.4. They concede 0.8 and 2.8 goals per match, respectively. Interval data shows Benfica most often scores between the 31st-45th and 76th-90th minutes (25% each), while Casa Pia scores in the first 15 minutes and between the 46th-60th (25% each). Benfica is most vulnerable to conceding in the last segments: 61st-75th and 76th-90th minutes (33% each). Casa Pia concedes most frequently in four different intervals, each at 22%. Statistics and total frequencies indicate both teams' tendency towards high-scoring matches, which is also supported by their averages. A bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.53 seems optimal here.

Corners in the Match

Benfica averages 6.6 corners per game, while Casa Pia averages 5.2. In their last five matches, Benfica surpassed the total corners over 9.5 twice, as did Casa Pia. The odds for total corners over 9.5 are 1.67, and for under 10.5 also 1.67. The odds for over 10 total corners are 1.90, and for under 10 are 1.90. Benfica is favored in corners with odds of 1.07. Considering the average figures of both teams and the frequency of this total being surpassed in recent matches, a bet on over 9.5 corners is worth considering. It's also noteworthy that Benfica consistently earns more corners, as evidenced by the low odds on their advantage in this metric.