Prediction for match Benfica — Estrela

Odds and Outcome Probabilities

In the Primeira Liga, Benfica will face Estrela on January 25. The odds heavily favor Benfica: a win for them is at 1.11, a draw is at 10.10, and a win for Estrela is at 29.00. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Benfica 87.09%, draw 9.57%, Estrela 3.33%. This reflects the difference in class and current form of the teams. Given these numbers, Benfica is the clear favorite for this match.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Benfica has had 54.4% possession, averaged 2 yellow cards, 10.2 fouls, and 0.8 offsides per game. Estrela, over the same period, has shown 40.8% possession, 3.2 yellow cards, 15.6 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. In their last three matches, Benfica lost 0-2 to Juventus on January 21, defeated Rio Ave 2-0 on January 17, and lost 0-1 to Porto on January 14. Estrela's last three outings were a 0-5 loss to Estoril on January 19, a 3-3 draw with Braga on January 3, and a 3-2 win over Famalicão on December 27. The last head-to-head meeting was on August 16, 2025, with Benfica winning 1-0.

How Many Goals Will Be Scored in Benfica vs. Estrela

In the last 5 games, Benfica has seen over 2.5 goals twice, with three games going under. Estrela has had four of their last five games end with over 2.5 goals. The average goals per game are 2.6 for Benfica and 4 for Estrela. Both teams score an average of 1.4 goals, but Estrela concedes 2.6, while Benfica concedes 1.2. By halves, Benfica has had three out of five games with over 1.5 goals in the first half and only one in the second, while Estrela has two out of five in the first half and three out of five in the second half. Benfica often scores between the 31st and 45th minutes (50%), while Estrela scores between the 61st and 75th minutes (50%). Benfica is vulnerable between the 16th and 30th minutes (50%), and Estrela between the 46th and 60th minutes (42%). Considering Estrela's high scoring in recent matches, along with Benfica's steady goal performance and Estrela's weak defense, a bet on over 2.75 goals at 1.56 seems justified.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Benfica averages 6.6 corners over five matches, while Estrela averages 2.6. For games with over 9.5 corners: Benfica has 4 out of 5 matches, and Estrela has 3 out of 5. The odds for over 9.5 corners are at 1.61, and under 9.5 is at 2.15. Benfica is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.02. Overall, the teams average 9.2 corners per game, which is close to the 9.5 line. A bet on over 9.5 corners seems logical given Benfica's activity and the frequent occurrence of this total in recent matches for both teams.