Prediction for match Benfica — Nacional

Odds and Probabilities for the Match Outcome

On April 12th, a Primeira Liga match will take place between Benfica and Nacional. The odds for the main outcomes are as follows: a win for Benfica is at 1.13, a draw is priced at 10.30, and a victory for Nacional is at 19.00. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Benfica 85.53%, draw 9.38%, Nacional 5.09%. There's a clear advantage for Benfica, which is reflected in the bookmakers' odds. Options for totals and both teams to score are also available, but the odds for a Benfica win are significantly below the threshold for the main prediction, so attention should be paid to the totals.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Benfica played as follows: April 6th against Casa Pia - 1:1, March 21st against Vitória Guimarães - 3:0, March 14th against Arouca - 2:1. During the same period, Nacional had the following matches: April 4th against Estrela - 2:0, March 21st against Famalicão - 0:1, March 15th against Estoril - 0:1. In a five-match series, Benfica averages 59.6% possession, while Nacional averages 47.4%. Average yellow cards: Benfica 2, Nacional 2.6. Fouls: Benfica 11.6, Nacional 13.6. Offsides are recorded at 1.4 for both teams. In their last head-to-head meeting on November 29, 2025, Nacional lost to Benfica 1-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a five-match series, Benfica has an average total of 3 goals, scoring 2 and conceding 1. Nacional's average total is 1.8, with 0.8 scored and 1 conceded. For over 2.5 goals, Benfica has 4 out of 5, while Nacional has only 1 out of 5. In the first half, Benfica had only 1 out of 5 matches over 1.5, while Nacional had none. However, in the second half, Benfica is consistently active: 5 out of 5 over 1.5, while Nacional has only 1 out of 5. For goal intervals, Benfica most frequently scores in four different segments: 0-15, 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes, at 25% each. Nacional most often scores in the 61-75 minute interval (40%). For goals conceded, Benfica most frequently allows goals in the 31-45 and 61-75 minute intervals (29% each), while Nacional concedes most in the first 15 minutes (50%). Considering Benfica's high scoring rate, regular over 2.5 totals, and Nacional's weak attack, a bet on under 3.5 goals at 1.94 seems logical. This option is supported by Nacional's average scoring and the fact that only 1 out of their 5 matches went over 2.5, and Benfica doesn't always run up the score.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

In the last five matches, Benfica averages 8.4 corners, while Nacional averages 4.8. For the frequency of over 9.5 corners, Benfica has 4 out of 5, and Nacional has 3 out of 5. Among the presented corner totals, the closest to the average sum (13.2) is 11, which has a couple of outcomes: over 11 corners is at 2.43, under 11 is at 1.50. In corner outcomes, Benfica is the favorite with odds of 1.07. Based on the statistics, an active game on the flanks and a large number of set-pieces can be expected, so a bet on over 11 corners looks justified, considering the frequency and high averages of both teams.