Prediction for match Benfica — Real Madrid, 28.01.2026

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the Champions League, Benfica will face Real Madrid on January 28, 2026. According to the odds, Real Madrid has the advantage: a win for the Spanish team is priced at 1.75, a draw at 4.42, and a victory for Benfica at 4.62. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Real Madrid - 56.35%, draw - 22.31%, Benfica - 21.34%. This reflects analysts' confidence in Real Madrid's strength, as they are significantly ahead of their opponent in the ratings.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Benfica has an average possession of 57.6%, with 2.2 yellow cards, 10.4 fouls, and 0.8 offsides per game. Real Madrid's possession is 57.4%, with 1.8 yellow cards, 11 fouls, and 0.4 offsides. Recent matches for Benfica: January 25 - Benfica vs Estrela 4-0, January 21 - Juventus vs Benfica 2-0, January 17 - Rio Ave vs Benfica 0-2. For Real Madrid: January 24 - Villarreal vs Real Madrid 0-2, January 20 - Real Madrid vs Monaco 6-1, January 17 - Real Madrid vs Levante 2-0. These stats demonstrate both teams' stability in ball control and discipline, and help assess their short-term playing trends.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Benfica has an average of 2.6 goals per match, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8. Real Madrid averages 4.2 goals per game, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.4. In their last five matches, Benfica's total over 2.5 occurred 2 times, under 3 times. Real Madrid's total over 2.5 occurred 3 times, under 2 times. By halves: Benfica's total over 1.5 in the first half occurred 2 times, in the second half also 2 times. Real Madrid's total over 1.5 in the first half occurred 3 times, in the second half 4 times. Goal intervals: Benfica most frequently scores between 31-45 and 46-60 minutes (30% each), Real Madrid in intervals 31-45, 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes (21% each). Conceding: Benfica most often concedes between 16-30 minutes (50%), Real Madrid between 31-45 minutes (43%). Considering Real Madrid's high scoring rate, Benfica's decent performance, and frequent occurrences of totals over 2.5, a bet on total over 2.75 at 1.56 seems logical.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Benfica averages 6.8 corners per match, Real Madrid 8.2. In their last five matches, both teams had total corners over 9.5 in 4 out of 5 games. The line highlights a corner total of 9.5: over 9.5 is priced at 1.74, under at 1.97. Real Madrid is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.85. Considering the average values and frequency, a bet on total corners over 9.5 seems justified for this match.