Prediction for match Birmingham — Derby County

Odds and Outcome Probabilities

In the English Championship on December 26, Birmingham will face Derby County. The odds for Birmingham to win are set at 1.81, a draw is priced at 3.44, and a win for Derby County is at 4.47. The probabilities are: Birmingham 51.78%, draw 27.25%, Derby County 20.97%. Birmingham stands out as the favorite, as confirmed by both the odds and the percentage distribution for the main outcomes.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Birmingham has shown 53% possession, with an average of 2.2 yellow cards, 10.4 fouls, and 1 offside per game. Birmingham averages 6.2 corners per match. During the same period, Derby County maintains 46.8% possession, receives 1.8 yellow cards, commits 9.6 fouls, and records 1.6 offsides. Derby County averages 7 corners per game. In Birmingham's last three matches: on 20.12.2025 Sheffield United beat Birmingham 3-0, on 13.12.2025 Birmingham drew with Charlton Athletic 1-1, and on 09.12.2025 QPR defeated Birmingham 2-1. For Derby County: on 20.12.2025 Derby County drew with Portsmouth 1-1, on 15.12.2025 Derby County defeated Sheffield Wednesday 3-0, and on 10.12.2025 Derby County drew with Millwall 1-1. The last head-to-head meeting was on 30.01.2022 and ended with a 2-2 draw between Derby County and Birmingham.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Birmingham has an average total of 3 goals per game, scoring 1 and conceding 2. Derby County has an average total of 2.8, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4. For the over 2.5 goals market, Birmingham played over 4 out of 5 times, Derby County 3 out of 5. Birmingham saw over 1.5 goals in the first half 3 times out of 5, Derby County 2 out of 5. In the second half, Birmingham went over 1.5 goals 2 out of 5, Derby County 3 out of 5. Birmingham most frequently scores between the 16th-30th and 31st-45th minutes (27% each), while Derby County scores most often between the 61st-75th and 76th-90th minutes (40% each). Birmingham most frequently concedes between the 61st-75th minutes (50%), Derby County in the first 15 minutes (44%). Given the over-profile on totals and consistent over 2.5 goals performances from both sides, betting on over 2.5 goals seems logical. This option is priced at 2.08.

Corners in the Match

Birmingham averages 6.2 corners per game, while Derby County averages 7. In the last 5 matches, Birmingham recorded over 9.5 corners 4 out of 5 times, Derby County 3 out of 5. The line for total corners closest to the average sum is 13. The over 10.5 corners is priced at 2.07, under 10.5 at 1.85. In the corners market, Birmingham is the favorite with odds of 1.36. Given the frequent high total corners and both teams' average activity, expecting a high number of corners is reasonable, and betting on over 10.5 corners seems justified.