Prediction for match Borussia Dortmund — St. Pauli, 17.01.2026

Match Analysis: Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli

Borussia Dortmund and St. Pauli will face off in the Bundesliga on January 17. The odds for a Borussia Dortmund win are 1.37, a draw is 5.33, and a St. Pauli victory is 10.00. Borussia Dortmund has a 71.73% chance of winning, a draw has an 18.44% probability, and St. Pauli has a 9.83% chance. This clearly indicates a significant advantage for Borussia Dortmund, as reflected in the probability percentages. The match promises to be exciting with attacking football, considering the recent statistics of both teams.

Team Results and Statistics

Over the last five matches, Borussia Dortmund has an average possession of 53.8%, receives an average of 2 yellow cards, commits 9.8 fouls, and is caught offside once per game. St. Pauli holds the ball 43.4% of the time, receives 1.6 yellow cards, commits 7.4 fouls, and is caught offside 1.4 times. In their last three matches, Borussia Dortmund defeated Werder 3-0 (13.01.2026), drew with Eintracht Frankfurt 3-3 (09.01.2026), and beat Borussia M 2-0 (19.12.2025). St. Pauli lost to Wolfsburg 1-2 (14.01.2026), drew with Mainz 0-0 (21.12.2025), and won against Heidenheim 2-1 (13.12.2025). In their last head-to-head on August 23, 2025, the teams drew 3-3.

Goal Scoring Trends

In their last five matches, Borussia Dortmund has had three games with over 2.5 goals and two with under 2.5. St. Pauli has also had three games over 2.5 goals and two under. Borussia Dortmund averages 3.4 goals per match, while St. Pauli averages 2.2. Borussia Dortmund scores an average of 2.2 goals per game, and St. Pauli scores 1.2. In terms of halves, Borussia Dortmund has two games with over 1.5 goals in the first half and three in the second half, while St. Pauli has one in the first and three in the second. Borussia Dortmund most frequently scores between the 76th and 90th minutes (36%), while St. Pauli scores most often between the 46th and 60th minutes (50%). Borussia Dortmund concedes most in the 31-45 and 61-75 minute intervals (33% each), while St. Pauli concedes in the 31-45 and 76-90 intervals (40% each). The statistics suggest regular goals from both sides, but Borussia Dortmund is notably more active in attack. In this situation, betting on over 2.5 goals at 1.75 seems justified, given Borussia Dortmund's attacking profile and St. Pauli's resilience.

Corner Totals Analysis

Borussia Dortmund averages 4.8 corners per match, while St. Pauli averages 3.4. In the last five matches, Borussia Dortmund has exceeded 9.5 corners twice, and St. Pauli has done so three times. For a total of 8.5 corners, the odds are: over 8.5 - 1.57, under 8.5 - 2.32. Borussia Dortmund is favored in the corner count with odds of 1.25. The combined corner statistics of both teams suggest that betting on over 8.5 corners is logical, considering Borussia Dortmund's attacking style and St. Pauli's ability to create chances.