Prediction for match Borussia M — Mainz 05

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

The Bundesliga continues to deliver exciting clashes, and the match between Borussia M and Mainz 05 on 19.04.2026 is no exception. Bookmakers offer odds of 2.47 for a Borussia M win, 2.99 for a Mainz 05 victory, and 3.64 for a draw. In terms of probability distribution, Borussia M is rated at 39.93%, a draw at 27.09%, and Mainz 05 at 32.98%. Thus, there is no clear favorite, but the odds and percentages slightly favor Borussia M, albeit not by a large margin. A key bet for this match is over 2.5 goals at 1.96, which seems reasonable given the current scoring form of both teams.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Borussia M averages 43.2% possession, commits 10.2 fouls, receives 1.2 yellow cards, and records 2.2 offsides per game. During the same period, Mainz 05 shows 38.6% possession, 10.8 fouls, 1.2 yellow cards, and 2.6 offsides. Looking at the last three matches, Borussia M lost to RB Leipzig 0-1, drew with Heidenheim 2-2, and had a 3-3 draw with Cologne. Mainz 05, on the other hand, lost to Strasbourg 0-4, was defeated by Freiburg 0-1, and beat Strasbourg 2-0. The last head-to-head was on 05.12.2025: Mainz 05 - Borussia M 0-1. These stats show that both teams engage in physical play and frequently break the rules, with possession not exceeding 45% for either side.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a five-match series, Borussia M has an average total of 3.6 goals per game, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2. Mainz 05 averages 2.6 goals, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.4. For over 2.5 goals: both teams have had 3 out of 5 matches with three or more goals. In the first half, Borussia M recorded over 1.5 goals in 3 out of 5 games, Mainz 05 in 4 out of 5. In the second half, Borussia M also had 3 out of 5 for over 1.5, while Mainz 05 had only 1 out of 5. As for goal intervals: Borussia M often scores between the 31-45 and 76-90 minutes (25% each), and Mainz 05 between the 16-30 and 61-75 (30% each). Borussia M concedes most frequently between 16-30 minutes (33%), while Mainz 05's conceded goals are evenly spread across four intervals at 25%. All this indicates that both teams are inclined towards high-scoring matches, especially in the second half, making the over 2.5 goals bet at 1.96 justified.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

On average, Borussia M earns 1.8 corners per game, while Mainz 05 has 5.2. In the last five matches, only 1 out of 5 for Borussia M went over 9.5 corners, whereas Mainz 05 had 3 out of 5. The odds for total corners over 9.5 are 1.94, and under 9.5 at 1.80. In the corner outcome line, Mainz 05 is favored at 1.95. Considering that Mainz 05 consistently delivers more corners, it makes sense to consider their individual corner total or the overall total over 9.5. Overall, the match promises to be rich in set pieces, especially from Mainz 05.